尿素日报：厂内库存继续累积，印标投标数量公布-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short the spread when prices are high [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The inventory in the factory continues to accumulate, and the number of bids for the Indian tender has been announced [1] - Some companies have recently lowered their quotes, and the low - price transactions have improved. The mainstream area transactions have improved, but after some manufacturers slightly raised their quotes, the transactions cooled down. The low - price transactions in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia continued [2] - The autumn fertilizer application in some agricultural areas is in progress, the compound fertilizer start - up rate has decreased, and the compound fertilizer for winter wheat is mainly for clearing inventory. Due to more autumn rains, the fertilizer demand for winter wheat this year may be postponed to mid - to late October. Recently, the weather in the autumn harvest area has improved, and the sales of compound fertilizers are expected to improve. Pay attention to the sustainability of the improvement in spot sentiment [2] - The start - up of melamine has rebounded, with rigid demand for procurement. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to long - term supply and demand of urea remains relatively loose [2] - The current inventory accumulation is mainly in Inner Mongolia. In late October, compound fertilizer plants in the Northeast will gradually start production. Pay attention to the procurement rhythm in the Northeast [2] - Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are still the export window periods. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. As of October 15th, a total of 370.19 million tons of urea were bid, with 1.9532 million tons for the west coast and 1.7487 million tons for the east coast (subject to change). The specific price is waiting for detailed reports. The urea export policy may still change, so pay attention to the subsequent urea export dynamics [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Figures include Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, 9 - 1 spread [5][7][8][15][17] 2. Urea Production - Figures include urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [22] 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - Figures include production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [26][33][34] 4. Urea Overseas Price and Export Profit - Figures include urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [32][36][38][41] 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - Figures include compound fertilizer start - up rate, melamine start - up rate, and days of orders to be delivered [48][49] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include upstream in - factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume [52][55][59]