新能源及有色金属日报：现货成交仍清淡，铅价维持震荡格局-20251016

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy:暂缓 (The original text is in Chinese, no English equivalent provided here) [4] 2. Core View of the Report - At present, the processing fee of lead concentrate is still low despite the continuous increase in by - product prices, and there are no major contradictions in the fundamentals. Downstream enterprises are expected to fully recover from the holiday next week, mostly adopting the production - based - on - sales model. It is expected that the lead price will show a volatile pattern, roughly in the range of 16,920 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 15, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 44.48 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 25 yuan/ton to 16,950 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16,975 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,125 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On October 15, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,010 yuan/ton and closed at 17,110 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 41,257 lots, a change of - 1,944 lots compared with the previous trading day. The positions for the whole trading day were 44,032 lots, a change of 435 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,135 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,960 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,110 yuan/ton and closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted a premium of 50 - 80 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead or a discount of 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract for ex - factory sales. In Hunan, smelters quoted a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex - factory sales, and traders quoted a discount of 170 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract. In Guangdong, smelters maintained a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for rigid - demand transactions. Downstream consumption showed a slight decline, with battery enterprises mainly taking long - term orders and making a small amount of rigid - demand purchases. The spot market transactions were rather light [2] Inventory - On October 15, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 36,000 tons, a change of - 900 tons compared with the same period last week. As of October 15, the LME lead inventory was 254,775 tons, a change of 8,225 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]