化工日报：聚酯产业链弱势，PTA加工费再度压缩-20251016

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is weak, and the PTA processing fee is compressed again. The supply - demand contradiction of over - supply has emerged due to factors such as the slowdown of China's import demand after the National Day, the increase in US exports, and the increase in Middle East exports. The macro and fundamentals resonate, putting pressure on the fundamentals without a clear rebound driver in the short term [1]. - For PX, the PXN is under pressure due to factors like the resumption of high - load operation in China, the restart of overseas devices, the postponement of the fourth - quarter maintenance plan, and the expansion of individual devices in the fourth quarter. The downstream PTA factory's production reduction and postponed new device production also affect the market sentiment, weakening the Q4 supply - demand outlook [1]. - For TA, the processing fee is repaired but suppressed. The accumulation of inventory is narrowed in October - November due to more maintenance plans and postponed new device production, but the inventory accumulation pressure is large in December. The market supply is abundant, and the demand is slightly boosted by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - For PF, the production profit has increased, the factory inventory has decreased to a low level, and the short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee is expected to be maintained [3]. - For PR, the processing fee has increased. The load remains stable, the inventory has increased due to holidays, and the supply - demand pressure is large under the new device production pressure. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3]. - In terms of strategies, for single - side operations, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies. For cross - variety operations, it is recommended to buy PF processing fees at low prices. For cross - period operations, it is recommended to conduct reverse spreads for PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [4]. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The TA main - contract spot basis is - 85 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 83 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of - 102 yuan/ton), and the main - contract disk processing fee is 306 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 0 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - The PX processing fee PXN is 226 US dollars/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 1.75 US dollars/ton). The PXN is under pressure due to factors such as the resumption of high - load operation of PX in China, the restart of overseas devices, the postponed maintenance plan, and the expansion of individual devices in the fourth quarter [1]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits No specific data and in - depth analysis provided in the given text. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - China's PX load has gradually recovered to a relatively high - load operation. With the restart of several overseas devices, the overall PX start - up rate has increased. The PTA load is increasing from a low level, and there are more maintenance plans [1][2]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The accumulation of PTA inventory is narrowed in October - November due to more maintenance plans and postponed new device production, but the inventory accumulation pressure is large in December. The market supply is abundant [2]. Downstream Polyester Load - The polyester start - up rate is 91.5% (with a month - on - month change of + 0.0%). The load of weaving and texturing increased in late September, and the orders improved marginally. After the National Day, the filament inventory started to accumulate again, and the terminal raw material procurement is expected to be mainly cautious [2]. PF Detailed Data - The PF spot production profit is 346 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 46 yuan/ton). The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber load is at a seasonal high, the factory inventory has decreased to a low level, and the short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of the raw material end [3]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 553 yuan/ton (with a month - on - month change of + 44 yuan/ton). The load remains stable, the inventory has increased due to holidays, and the supply - demand pressure is large under the new device production pressure. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [3]