Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the overall domestic supply - demand is gradually turning to a loose pattern, with expected slower inventory reduction or restocking, but the low valuation limits the downside. For BR, the supply - demand is expected to be strong in the later period, and the high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the upstream butadiene price [6] Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 14,895 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,235 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 10,895 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The Shanghai market price of Yunnan - produced whole latex was 14,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton. The Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,740 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Sales - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, hitting a new high for the same period in recent years [2] Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 742,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.75% and a year - on - year increase of 20.85%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 6.115 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.22% [2] Tire Exports - From January to August 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 650,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires were 626,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the export value was 109.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In terms of quantity, the exports were 47.86 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2] Cote d'Ivoire Rubber Exports - From January to August 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August alone, exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [3] Automobile Production and Sales - From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 37.3% and 36.7%, and new energy vehicle sales accounted for 45.5% of total new vehicle sales. In terms of exports, from January to August, automobile exports were 4.292 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 1.532 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 87.3% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 15, 2025, the RU basis was - 595 yuan/ton (unchanged), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 295 yuan/ton (down 100), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,164 yuan/ton (up 106.66), the NR basis was 899 yuan/ton (down 37); the whole latex was 14,300 yuan/ton (up 50), the mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (up 150), the 3L spot was 14,950 yuan/ton (unchanged). The STR20 was quoted at 1,850 US dollars/ton (up 30), the spread between the whole latex and 3L was - 700 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between the mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,300 yuan/ton (up 350) [3] Raw Materials - Thai smoked sheet was 57.19 Thai baht/kg (down 0.46), Thai latex was 54.10 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 49.65 Thai baht/kg (down 0.30), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.45 Thai baht/kg (up 0.30) [4] 开工率 - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 41.53% (down 13.83%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 42.15% (down 17.50%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (down 122,953), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (down 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 144,390 tons (down 5,420), and the NR futures inventory was 41,329 tons (down 705) [5] 顺丁橡胶 Spot and Spreads - On October 15, 2025, the BR basis was - 145 yuan/ton (down 115), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private - owned cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,620 yuan/ton (down 30), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,258 yuan/ton (down 63) [5] 开工率 - The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 74.69% (up 4.15%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 4,860 tons (down 840), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,900 tons (up 1,300) [5] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. Currently, NR is relatively undervalued overseas, and its price performance is significantly stronger than RU, causing the spread between RU and NR to narrow recently. After the rainfall in the main production areas at home and abroad decreases, production gradually recovers, and domestic raw material prices decline. Thai raw material prices remain firm, mainly due to more rain in northern Thailand, but with less rain in southern Thailand, the latex price has loosened. The cost - side support for rubber has no obvious change. In the peak season with reduced rain, the supply is expected to recover. After the downstream tire factories stocked up intensively before the festival, the raw material demand will slow down this week, but the operating rate of tire factories is rising, and the rigid demand remains. The domestic arrival volume is likely to continue to rise, and the overall domestic supply - demand is gradually turning to a loose pattern, with expected slower inventory reduction or restocking. However, the current valuations of domestic RU and NR are low, and the downside is expected to be limited. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. In October, there are still maintenance plans for domestic cis - butadiene rubber plants, and the scale of maintenance may be the same as in September, providing support on the supply side. After the downstream tire factories stocked up intensively before the festival, the raw material demand will slow down this week, but the operating rate of tire factories is rising, and the rigid demand remains. The overall operating rate of cis - butadiene rubber this year is still at a high level compared to the same period, and the pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged. It is expected that the downstream will continue to show peak - season characteristics, and the supply - demand of cis - butadiene rubber will be strong. The current high inventory may lead to a slight decline following the upstream butadiene price [6]
化工日报：天然橡胶社会库存环比继续下降-20251016
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-16 03:08