俄罗斯10月燃料油发货量或出现回落

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently fair, but the recent weak performance of crude oil prices due to a looser fundamental situation and potential tariff frictions is suppressing the overall energy sector [1] - Russian fuel oil supply is restricted, with expected lower high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in October. The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil, but the pressure is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.45% at 2,681 yuan/ton, while the night session of the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.06% at 3,156 yuan/ton [1] - Crude oil prices are weak recently, suppressing the overall energy sector. The fundamentals of fuel oil are currently fair, and the market structure is supported [1] - Russian supply is restricted. Due to continuous drone attacks in Ukraine and new sanctions from the UK on October 15, Russian refinery maintenance has increased unexpectedly, and the estimated high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in October are 1.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons from the previous month [1] - The fundamentals and market structure of low-sulfur fuel oil are weaker than those of high-sulfur fuel oil. Supply from Africa, South America, etc. has increased, and shipping and bunker fuel demand face potential risks. However, the pressure is expected to ease after the restart of the Dangote refinery's RFCC unit [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Cautiously bearish, with a short-term focus on waiting and seeing [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2]