甲醇日报：港口再度走强-20251016

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Port inventory has declined, and port basis is firm. The market is driven by news about whether Iranian sanctioned ships can dock. There are concerns about potential relaxation of sanctions on Iran, and China's new special port dues may affect some US - owned methanol ships' docking [3] - Coal - based methanol operating rate in the inland region has rebounded, and inland inventory is gradually increasing, weakening the support for ports [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - Includes figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Involves figures about Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit, and import price differences between different regions (e.g., Taicang - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [25][29][30] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures present methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations) [34][42] IV. Regional Price Differences - Shows price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [36][46][49] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Contains figures about the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [56][58] Market Data Summary Inland Region - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 660 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan). Inner Mongolia North Line methanol price is 2065 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan), and its basis is 367 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan). Inner Mongolia South Line is 2050 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi is 2320 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its basis is 222 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan). Henan is 2175 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and its basis is 77 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan). Hebei is 2235 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its basis is 197 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan) [1] - Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 360,900 tons (up 21,500 tons), and Northwest factory inventory is 223,000 tons (up 19,000 tons). Inland factory pending orders are 228,910 tons (up 113,670 tons), and Northwest factory pending orders are 136,730 tons (up 73,530 tons) [1] Port Region - Taicang methanol is 2317 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan), and its basis is 19 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan). CFR China is 261 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars), and the East China import price difference is 1 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan). Changzhou methanol is 2405 yuan/ton, and Guangdong methanol is 2285 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), with a basis of - 13 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan) [2] - Longzhong's port total inventory is 1,491,360 tons (down 51,870 tons), Jiangsu port inventory is 773,000 tons (down 20,000 tons), Zhejiang port inventory is 224,000 tons (down 63,500 tons), and Guangdong port inventory is 323,000 tons (up 23,000 tons). The downstream MTO operating rate is 92.39% (up 0.50%) [2] Regional Price Differences - Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is - 55 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference is - 298 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), Taicang - Lunan - 250 price difference is - 253 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan), Lunan - Taicang - 100 price difference is - 97 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan), Guangdong - East China - 180 price difference is - 212 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan), and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 price difference is - 103 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - term: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when the price is low - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when the price is high [4]