Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. In the short - term, it will likely trade in a range due to the lack of improvement in US soybean imports and the de - stocking season of soybean meal [3][4]. - For palm oil and other oils, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost in soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, and the expected decrease in exportable volume due to the increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the price center. In the medium - term, it can be considered to buy on dips when it stabilizes, while in the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see due to the weakening commodity sentiment [5][7]. - For sugar, considering the high production in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. - For cotton, due to the weak fundamentals and the negative impact of the macro - environment, the upward space of cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to trade weakly [12]. - For eggs, in the short - term, it is advisable to hold a bearish view on the near - term contracts. In the medium - term, there may be a rebound correction, and in the long - term, it is recommended to sell on rallies after the rebound [16]. - For pigs, in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure is large. It is advisable to reduce short positions on near - term contracts, and pay attention to the possibility of positive spreads when the spot price stabilizes. The far - term contracts are still considered for reverse spreads [18]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Market Information: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose due to strong domestic demand in the US. On Thursday, the domestic soybean meal spot price was slightly stable, with the East China price at around 2910 yuan/ton. The soybean meal inventory continued to decline, and MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1674 million tons. Brazil is expected to increase its soybean planting area this year [2][3]. - Strategy: The global soybean supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds. In the short - term, it will trade in a range [4]. Oils - Market Information: From October 1 - 10 and 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased compared to the same period last month, and the production from October 1 - 15 increased month - on - month. India's vegetable oil imports in September slightly decreased compared to August. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15%. Domestic oils traded in a range on Thursday [5]. - Strategy: In the medium - term, consider buying on dips when it stabilizes. In the short - term, wait and see [7]. Sugar - Market Information: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price traded in a narrow range. The spot price of sugar in various regions decreased. As of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded increased [8]. - Strategy: Sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. Cotton - Market Information: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price traded in a narrow range. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. The cotton production in China is expected to increase this year, with the national output expected to reach 7.278 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [11]. - Strategy: The upward space of cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to trade weakly [12]. Eggs - Market Information: The national egg price generally rose yesterday, with stable supply and good market sales [14]. - Strategy: Hold a bearish view on near - term contracts in the short - term, expect a rebound correction in the medium - term, and sell on rallies after the rebound in the long - term [16]. Pigs - Market Information: The domestic pig price generally continued to rise yesterday. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening in the North showed signs of decline, while the demand for large pigs in the South increased [17]. - Strategy: Reduce short positions on near - term contracts, and pay attention to the possibility of positive spreads when the spot price stabilizes. The far - term contracts are still considered for reverse spreads [18].
五矿期货农产品早报：2025-10-17-20251017
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-17 00:57