宝城期货国债期货早报-20251017

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is oscillatory, with a short - term outlook of maintaining bottom - end oscillatory consolidation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - TL2512 is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, medium - term, and overall, with an intraday view of being weakly oscillatory. The core logic is that there are still long - term expectations of interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the overall reference view is oscillatory. The driving force of Treasury bond futures is currently limited, with limited upside and downside space. The latest September financial data shows weak credit demand in the household sector and insufficient effective domestic demand, leading to expectations of a loose monetary policy in the long - term, which supports Treasury bond futures. However, there is a lack of short - term necessity for a comprehensive interest rate cut, and the market's implied interest rate cut expectation is weak, resulting in insufficient short - term upward momentum. Recently, external uncertainties have increased market risk - aversion sentiment [5].