Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-17 01:45Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall situation of the rapeseed industry is affected by multiple factors including trade policies, supply - demand relationships, and international market trends. For rapeseed meal, it is expected to remain weakly volatile, and for rapeseed oil, it will continue the de - stocking mode, but short - term observation is needed [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9935 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2364 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed was 633 Canadian dollars/ton, up 4.4 Canadian dollars, and that of the active contract of rapeseed was 5255 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - Spreads: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 441 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was 58 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 287,961 lots, down 8681 lots; that of rapeseed meal was 354,755 lots, down 7176 lots. The net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions of rapeseed oil was 15,423 lots, up 445 lots; that of rapeseed meal was - 84,324 lots, up 2250 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil was 7590 sheets, unchanged; that for rapeseed meal was 8699 sheets, down 390 sheets [2]. 2. Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,170 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10,263.75 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed was 7541.12 yuan/ton, up 42.32 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil was 235 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 86 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing was 8540 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast production of rapeseed was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed was 24.66 million tons, up 7.06 million tons. The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 14 million tons, up 1 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was 18.31 million tons, down 8.72 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 5 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed was 3.73%, down 1.6% [2]. 4. Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 6 million tons, down 1.67 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, down 1.53 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 50.9 million tons, unchanged; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 27.9 million tons, down 0.69 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 2.8 million tons, down 0.75 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 22.5 million tons, up 1.4 million tons [2]. 5. Downstream Situation -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 0.22 million tons, down 2.96 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 1.09 million tons, down 1.32 million tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2927.2 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 450.6 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly value of social consumer goods retail sales in the catering industry was 4495.7 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 6. Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 20.57%, up 0.32%; that of at - the - money put options was 20.56%, up 0.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.23%, up 0.01%; that of at - the - money put options was 14.23%, up 0.01% [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 23.6%, up 0.03%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 25.05%, unchanged. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 17.39%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.91%, up 0.02% [2]. 7. Industry News - On October 15th, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher, supported by technical buying and the strong trend of the US soybean oil market. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures rose 4.80 Canadian dollars to settle at 620.40 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January futures rose 4.20 Canadian dollars to settle at 634.30 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - In the US, the harvest in the Midwest is progressing actively due to favorable weather, and the expected high - yield of US soybeans restricts the market price. The US government shutdown leads to a lack of data and market caution [2]. 8. Rapeseed Meal View Summary - Internationally, the US soybean export pressure remains due to the lack of progress in Sino - US trade relations. The high - yield of Canadian rapeseed is basically realized, which puts pressure on its price. Domestically, the import of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter is restricted, but the demand for rapeseed meal decreases due to the weakening of aquaculture demand and the substitution of soybean meal. The rapeseed meal is expected to remain weakly volatile [2]. 9. Rapeseed Oil View Summary - Internationally, Indonesia's plan to increase biodiesel to B50 next year is positive for the palm oil market, but Malaysia's palm oil inventory has increased for seven consecutive months. Domestically, the initial ruling on anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed is out, and the import of rapeseed is expected to be structurally tightened in the fourth quarter. Rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking mode, but the abundant supply of soybean oil weakens the demand for rapeseed oil. The short - term trend needs to be observed [2]. 10. Key Points of Attention - Monitor the rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory data from myagricultural.com on Mondays, as well as the Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade policies [2].