多要素共振下?价?位震荡

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Gold prices are in a technical consolidation phase after hitting new all - time highs but remain in a strong range. Multiple factors, including the escalation of Sino - US trade friction, the continuation of the US government shutdown, and the strengthening of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, together provide macro support for the rise of precious metals. With Powell's statement of "not over - cutting interest rates but stopping balance - sheet reduction" and the influence of geopolitical risks and global capital re - allocation, precious metal prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Key Information - Sino - US trade friction has reignited. The market is worried that the negotiations before the November APEC meeting will reach a deadlock, leading to an increase in safe - haven buying. The US government shutdown continues, causing an estimated economic loss of about $15 billion per week, and the BLS has postponed the release of September CPI data. The probability of a 25 - bp interest rate cut in October and December is 95% and 87% respectively according to CME FedWatch. Geopolitical risks are rising, with the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions driving global funds to allocate to gold, silver, and long - term bonds [4]. 2. Price Logic - Gold price increases are driven by three mechanisms: policy, risk - hedging, and capital structure. Policy - wise, Fed's interest rate cut expectations and slower balance - sheet reduction release liquidity repair signals, and the government shutdown makes "no data is bullish" a short - term trading logic. Risk - hedging involves the inflow of safe - haven and allocation funds due to trade and geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases and ETF position increases. In terms of capital structure, speculative long positions are concentrated in London and COMEX contracts, and if the US dollar index remains weak, gold prices may break through. Technically, gold has an over - bought correction risk, with support at $4000 - $4050 and resistance at $4250 - $4300. Silver shows stronger performance due to structural tightness in the London spot market, and its long - term logic remains bullish [5]. 3. Outlook - Against the backdrop of multiple factors, precious metals will maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation. In the short term, interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks provide support, but rapid volatility increase requires caution for short - term adjustments. The focus range for London gold is $4020 - $4500 per ounce, and for London silver is $50 - $55 per ounce [7]. 4. Index Information - On October 15, 2025, the precious metals index rose 2.72% on the day, 5.67% in the past 5 days, 16.59% in the past month, and 53.21% since the beginning of the year. The commodity index was 2232.58, up 0.41%; the commodity 20 index was 2533.12, up 0.57%; the industrial products index was 2189.17, down 0.09% [44][46].