金融期货早评-20251017

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Financial Futures - The domestic economy is in the process of repair, with potential for incremental policies to promote price stability. The recent intensification of Sino-US trade friction is likely a game between the two sides, and short - term expectations for trade talks should not be too high [1]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain stable, with the TACO trade having short - term stability but long - term concerns [1]. - The stock index is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with the short - term trend difficult to capture. It is advisable to try cross - variety arbitrage in index futures. The relative advantage of large - cap indexes may continue [2]. - Treasury bonds are expected to maintain a volatile trend, with limited upward and downward space. It is recommended to hold long positions in small amounts and wait for price drops to build positions [3]. - The shipping index (European line) futures are likely to continue to fluctuate, with a strategy of waiting and short - term operations. There are still low - buying opportunities for the 12 - contract [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and silver prices are rising strongly, with medium - to - long - term bullish trends but increased short - term volatility. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [9][10]. - The copper price is suppressed by demand but may rebound due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts. A "sell put + buy futures" combination strategy can be tried [11]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy to be volatile and bullish [12]. - Zinc is expected to be in a state of uncertainty, mainly in a volatile state [13]. - Nickel and stainless steel have a weakening downward drive, with short - term volatility. Nickel ore quotas in 2026 are expected to decline, and stainless steel exports have positive factors [15]. - Tin is still bullish in the long - term, with a stable mid - to - short - term wave - like upward trend. High - selling and low - buying strategies can be adopted [16]. - Carbonate lithium has strong demand, and the inventory of warehouse receipts is decreasing. It is expected to form a phased support for futures prices [17]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon have weak fundamentals. Industrial silicon prices may rise slightly in the future, while polysilicon is affected by news disturbances [18][19]. - Lead is expected to maintain a volatile trend with limited upside [20]. Black Metals - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, the market sentiment has slightly improved, but the downward trend may not be over. The rebound power of the futures market is limited [22]. - Iron ore has been under pressure recently, affected by the decline in market risk appetite and the rise in coking coal prices. Short - term short positions can consider taking profits at the right time [23]. - Coking coal and coke are in a state of upward rebound but face negative feedback risks. Unilateral trading should adopt a volatile strategy [24]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are affected by coking coal. They are in a state of high supply and weak demand, and are expected to oscillate at the bottom [25]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are falling due to increased避险 sentiment. The market is affected by the game between macro - sentiment and supply - demand, and is likely to continue to adjust in the short term [27]. - PTA - PX prices follow the cost side. The supply of PX is expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, and PTA is in a state of relative surplus. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and try to expand the processing margin [29][31]. - MEG - bottle chips are mainly affected by macro - impacts. The long - term inventory build - up expectation makes it difficult to change its short - position status. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and consider selling put options [33]. - Methanol is affected by macro - trading. After the holiday, it is still in a weak state, and it is advisable to buy a small amount of bottom positions at low prices [34]. - PP is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, following the decline of the cost side. It is recommended to wait and see on the unilateral side [36]. - PE is in a weak pattern, with supply increasing and demand growing slowly. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [39]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a phase of post - decline consolidation. Pure benzene has a difficult - to - rise and easy - to - fall situation, and styrene supply is tightening. Unilateral trading should wait and see [41]. - Fuel oil is recommended to focus on shorting the cracking spread, considering the supply and demand situation [42]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak rebound, with limited upward drive [42]. - Asphalt has no super - expected performance in the peak season. Short - term external disturbances are increasing, and it is advisable to wait and see [43]. - Rubber and 20 - day rubber have differentiated trends. In the short term, they are under pressure from supply and inventory. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [44][45]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda have upstream inventory build - up. Soda ash has long - term supply pressure, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda has uncertain short - term trends and long - term production pressure [46][47][48]. Agricultural Products - For live pigs, with high supply, it is advisable to short at high prices. Short - term attention should be paid to the game between farmers' sentiment and prices, and long - term attention to capacity - reduction policies [50]. - In the oilseed market, the domestic market is weakening, and the external market is in a narrow - range bottom oscillation. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US negotiations and supply - demand changes [51]. - For edible oils, palm oil may have limited downside, and it is advisable to buy on dips after a pullback. Soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil's inventory may slowly decline [53]. - For soybeans, the 11 - contract should adjust short - positions according to spot sales, and new low - cost inventory can consider hedging in the 01 - contract [53]. - Corn and starch are in a weak state, with the corn starch market oscillating [53]. - Cotton has new cotton picking over half - way. The market is affected by the US government shutdown and consumption concerns [54]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market information includes Sino - US trade talks, US bank credit issues, Fed interest - rate cut disagreements, and the US government shutdown [1]. - The core logic is that the domestic economy needs to focus on consumer demand, with potential for incremental policies. Sino - US trade friction is a new market focus, and the short - term outlook for trade talks is uncertain [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day saw a slight decline in the on - shore RMB against the US dollar. The main influencing factors are Sino - US trade talks and US government policies [1]. - The core logic is that the impact of this trade friction on the exchange rate is limited, and the RMB is expected to remain stable [1]. Stock Index - The previous trading day saw mixed performance of the stock index, with large - cap indexes rising and small - cap indexes falling. Trading volume decreased, indicating strong wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - The core view is that short - term trends are difficult to capture, and cross - variety arbitrage in index futures can be tried. The relative advantage of large - cap indexes may continue [2]. Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day saw a volatile bond market, with some varieties rising and some falling. Trading volume decreased significantly [3]. - The core view is that the bond market lacks momentum, with limited upward and downward space. It is advisable to hold long positions in small amounts and wait for price drops to build positions [3]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The previous trading day saw the shipping index futures price first decline and then oscillate at a low level [4]. - The core view is that the futures price is likely to continue to fluctuate, with a strategy of waiting and short - term operations. There are still low - buying opportunities for the 12 - contract [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals Gold & Silver - The previous trading day saw a strong rise in precious metals prices, with a decline in the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, and other related assets. This reflects increased financial market risks in the US [7]. - The core view is that gold and silver prices are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term but volatile in the short - term. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [9]. Copper - The previous trading day saw mixed performance of copper prices in different markets. The supply side has some maintenance situations, and the demand side suppresses price increases [10][11]. - The core view is that the expectation of interest rate cuts may drive copper prices to rebound. It is advisable to try a "sell put + buy futures" combination strategy [11]. Aluminum Industry Chain - The previous trading day saw different trends in aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices, while alumina is in a state of oversupply [11][12]. - The core view is that aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish, alumina to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy to be volatile and bullish [12]. Zinc - The previous trading day saw zinc prices oscillating in a narrow range. The supply side is relatively stable domestically and has some production cuts overseas. Low inventory provides support [12][13]. - The core view is that the direction of zinc prices is unclear, and it is mainly in a volatile state [13]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The previous trading day saw a slight rise in nickel and stainless - steel prices. The macro - environment has expectations of interest rate cuts and some easing of Sino - US tariffs. The supply and demand of nickel ore and stainless steel have different trends [14][15]. - The core view is that the downward drive of nickel and stainless steel is weakening, with short - term volatility. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [15]. Tin - The previous trading day saw tin prices opening low and then rising. The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is still bullish [16]. - The core view is that it is advisable to hold long positions for those already in the market and continue to observe for those not yet in [16]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day saw an increase in carbonate lithium futures prices. The market demand is strong, and the inventory of warehouse receipts is decreasing [16]. - The core view is that it is expected to form a phased support for futures prices [17]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The previous trading day saw different trends in industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices. The supply and demand of the industrial silicon industry chain are general, and the polysilicon market is affected by news [17][18]. - The core view is that industrial silicon prices may rise slightly in the future, while polysilicon is affected by news disturbances [18][19]. Lead - The previous trading day saw lead prices oscillating in a narrow range. The supply side is affected by silver prices and raw - material restrictions, and the demand side has some export potential. Inventory may increase in the short term [19][20]. - The core view is that the upside of lead prices is limited [20]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day saw a rebound in rebar with reduced positions, and hot - rolled coils performed weaker. The inventory of five major steel products decreased, but the de - stocking speed is slower than in previous years [22]. - The core view is that the market sentiment has slightly improved, but the downward trend may not be over. The rebound power of the futures market is limited [22]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day saw a continuous decline in iron ore prices. The increase in coking coal prices has squeezed iron ore prices, and the inventory has increased [23]. - The core view is that iron ore is under short - term pressure, and it is advisable to take profits on short positions at the right time [23]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke prices oscillating strongly. The coking coal market is facing a situation of tight supply and potential negative feedback risks [23][24]. - The core view is that the rebound height and sustainability of coking coal and coke prices depend on the supply - demand balance of downstream steel products. It is advisable to adopt a volatile strategy on the unilateral side [24]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The previous trading day saw an increase in ferroalloy prices affected by coking coal. The industry is facing a contradiction between high supply and weak demand [25]. - The core view is that there is no obvious upward drive in the short term, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [25]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The previous trading day saw a decline in crude oil prices. The market is affected by the game between macro - sentiment and supply - demand, with increased避险 sentiment [27]. - The core view is that the market is likely to continue to adjust in the short term, and the downward risk is the focus [27]. PTA - PX - The supply of PX is expected to increase in October, with a tight - balance or slight inventory - build - up situation. PTA supply has some changes, and demand is seasonally strong but not as good as in previous years [29][30]. - The core view is that PTA - PX prices follow the cost side. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and try to expand the processing margin [31]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The inventory of MEG in East China ports has increased. The supply side has changes in various devices, and demand is in a state of seasonal improvement but not strong [31][32]. - The core view is that it is mainly affected by macro - impacts. The long - term inventory build - up expectation makes it difficult to change its short - position status. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side and consider selling put options [33]. Methanol - The previous trading day saw methanol prices at a certain level. The inventory of methanol ports has increased after the holiday, and it is affected by Iranian shipments and Sino - US trade [33]. - The core view is that after the holiday, it is still in a weak state, and it is advisable to buy a small amount of bottom positions at low prices [34]. PP - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in PP prices. The supply side is expected to increase due to improved profits, while the demand side is "off - peak" [35][36]. - The core view is that PP is facing a situation of strong supply and weak demand, following the decline of the cost side. It is recommended to wait and see on the unilateral side [36]. PE - The previous trading day saw a slight increase in PE prices. The supply side is expected to increase due to device restarts and potential imports, while the demand side is slow to recover [38][39]. - The core view is that PE is in a weak pattern, with supply increasing and demand growing slowly. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [39]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The previous trading day saw an increase in pure benzene and styrene prices. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and styrene supply is tightening [40][41]. - The core view is that they are in a phase of post - decline consolidation. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [41]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw fuel oil prices at a certain level. The supply of fuel oil is tightening, and the demand is in a state of change. Inventory in some areas has decreased [42]. - The core view is that it is recommended to focus on shorting the cracking spread [42]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The previous trading day saw low - sulfur fuel oil prices at a certain level. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. Inventory in some areas has decreased [42]. - The core view is that it has a weak rebound, with limited upward drive [42]. Asphalt - The previous trading day saw asphalt prices at a certain level. The supply of asphalt is relatively stable, and the demand is affected by the holiday and weather. Inventory has changed in structure [43]. - The core view is that the peak season has no super - expected performance. Short - term external disturbances are increasing, and it is advisable to wait and see [43]. Rubber and 20 - Day Rubber - The previous trading day saw a differentiation in rubber prices, with 20 - day rubber rebounding. The macro - environment and supply - demand have certain pressures, but the price of 20 - day rubber delivery products is firm [43]. - The core view is that in the short term, there is pressure from supply and inventory. It is advisable to wait and see on the unilateral side [44][45]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash inventory has increased, with long - term supply pressure. Glass inventory is high, and demand is weak. Caustic soda has uncertain short - term trends and long - term production pressure [46][47][48]. - The core view is that soda ash is affected by supply pressure, glass is restricted by inventory and demand, and caustic soda needs to wait for the market to bottom out [46][47][48]. Agricultural Products