股市缩量震荡，债市发酵换券

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market is experiencing a period of low - volume consolidation, waiting for policy - related catalysts. The strategy is to hold long positions in IM and wait for policy - driven market movements [1][6]. - The stock index options market maintains a medium - term optimistic sentiment. The operation strategy is to continue with covered calls or intraday double - selling [2][7]. - In the treasury bond futures market, there is an expectation of an active bond switch for 25 Special Bond 6. The short - term trend of the long - end of the bond market is likely to be volatile [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The market is in a low - volume consolidation state. The base spreads and inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed compared to the previous trading day, and their positions have also changed. The market shows a dumbbell - shaped structure, with the dividend index rising for six consecutive days. The impact of tariff increases on the stock market has weakened. As an important meeting approaches next week, there is an expectation of policy intensification. The recommended operation is to hold long positions in IM [1][6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - The underlying market's optimistic sentiment continues but is somewhat differentiated, with small and medium - cap stocks underperforming large - cap stocks. The trading volume of the options market decreased by 14.01% compared to the previous day, while the liquidity of 50 and 300 - related varieties increased. The call trading on 50ETF and 300ETF was relatively active, but the out - of - the - money degree of call trading decreased. The seller's sentiment in large - cap varieties continued to recover. The recommended operations are covered calls or intraday double - selling [2][7]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The closing performance of treasury bond futures was differentiated. The 30 - year main contract rose by 0.42%, the 10 - year main contract rose by 0.06%, and the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.01%. The central bank's open - market operation led to a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan, but the capital market remained relatively loose. The low - volume consolidation of the equity market and the decrease in risk appetite supported the long - end of the bond market. There was an expectation of an active bond switch for 25 Special Bond 6, but it remains to be seen. The short - term trend of the long - end of the bond market is likely to be volatile. Recommended strategies include trend trading with a volatile outlook, short - hedging when the basis is low, long - end arbitrage, and paying attention to the steepening of the yield curve [3][7][8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's export annual rate in September was 8.3% (expected 7.1%, previous 4%); PPI annual rate was - 2.3% (expected - 2.3%, previous - 2.9%); and the social financing scale from the beginning of the year to September was 30.09 trillion yuan (expected 29.91 trillion yuan, previous 26.56 trillion yuan). The data for the US non - farm payrolls in September is yet to be released [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Two new policies: With the implementation of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policies, the equipment renewal of industrial enterprises in China has accelerated in the first three quarters of this year. The procurement of mechanical equipment by industrial enterprises increased by 9.4% year - on - year, with high - tech manufacturing and the power, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries showing growth rates of 14% and 10.5% respectively [10]. - US employment: The US job market has shown a significant change. Enterprises are neither hiring nor firing, and there are many applicants for each position. Labor demand and supply are shrinking at the same rate, and productivity seems to be increasing, which may offset some cost pressures. Consumers are still spending but are making choices due to less abundant funds [10].