中信期货晨报：国内商品期货多数上涨，新能源材料涨幅居前-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - Financial Market: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - Commodity Market: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - Shipping Market: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - Overseas Macro: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - Domestic Macro: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - Short - term: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - Medium - term (Fourth Quarter): Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - Financial: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - Shipping: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - Black Building Materials: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - Energy and Chemicals: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - Agriculture: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]