沥青：出货平缓

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the latest fundamental data, trend strength, and market information of asphalt. The asphalt market shows a situation of flat shipment, with changes in futures prices, trading volume, positions, and inventory levels [1][2][11][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: The closing price of BU2511 yesterday was 3,279 yuan/ton, up 0.89%, and the night - session closing price was 3,255 yuan/ton, down 0.73%. The closing price of BU2512 yesterday was 3,197 yuan/ton, up 0.41%, and the night - session closing price was 3,181 yuan/ton, down 0.50% [2]. - Trading Volume and Positions: The trading volume of BU2511 yesterday was 100,365 lots, a decrease of 12,450 lots, and the position was 71,636 lots, a decrease of 11,147 lots. The trading volume of BU2512 yesterday was 43,913 lots, an increase of 639 lots, and the position was 81,196 lots, a decrease of 1,198 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total warehouse receipts of asphalt in the whole market yesterday were 36,370 lots, with no change [2]. - Spreads: The basis (Shandong - 11) was 141 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59 yuan compared with the previous day; the 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 82 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan; the Shandong - South China spread was - 30 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan; the East China - South China spread was 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2]. - Spot Market: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2]. - Operating and Inventory Rates: As of October 16, the refinery operating rate was 36.16%, a decrease of 6.61% compared with October 13, and the refinery inventory rate was 29.34%, an increase of 0.64% [2]. Trend Strength The trend strength of asphalt is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [11]. Market Information - Production: In the week from October 10 - 16, 2025, the weekly total output of domestic asphalt was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons (2.7%) compared with the previous week, and an increase of 139,000 tons (29.0%) compared with the same period last year. The cumulative output from January to October was 2.6081 billion tons, an increase of 333,300 tons (14.6%) compared with the same period last year [16]. - Factory Warehouse Inventory: As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factory warehouses in China was 770,000 tons, a decrease of 2.4% compared with October 13. The inventory reduction in East China and Shandong was obvious due to intermittent shutdowns of major refineries and good shipping [16]. - Social Warehouse Inventory: As of October 16, 2025, the total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses in China was 1.423 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% compared with October 13. The inventory in the northern region decreased significantly due to concentrated shipments after the weather improved [16].