白糖：巴西中南部食糖产量同比增加

Report Summary 1) Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core View The report presents a comprehensive overview of the sugar market, highlighting the production, consumption, and trade trends in both domestic and international markets. It shows an increase in Brazilian sugar production but a decline in exports, and anticipates supply shortages in the global market in the 25/26 and 24/25 seasons. Meanwhile, the domestic market is expected to have stable production and consumption, with concerns about a decrease in the sugar extraction rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi during the 25/26 season. The trend strength of sugar is rated as -1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [1][2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Directory Fundamental Data - The raw sugar price is 15.85 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.18; the mainstream spot price is 5770 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year; the futures main contract price is 5408 yuan per ton, up 5 yuan year - on - year. The 15 spread is 34 yuan per ton, up 2 yuan year - on - year; the 59 spread is - 17 yuan per ton, up 1 yuan year - on - year; the mainstream spot basis is 362 yuan per ton, down 15 yuan year - on - year [1] Macro and Industry News - High - frequency information shows that Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year - on - year, while its exports declined, raising concerns about global consumption. In September, Brazil exported 325 million tons, a 16% year - on - year decrease; in August, it exported 374 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease; in July, it exported 359 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Conab lowered its forecast for Brazil's production in the 25/26 season to 4450 million tons from the previous 4590 million tons. China imported 83 million tons of sugar in August, an increase of 6 million tons [1] Domestic Market - CAOC estimates that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 1116 million tons, consumption will be 1580 million tons, and imports will be 500 million tons; in the 25/26 season, production will be 1120 million tons, consumption will be 1590 million tons, and imports will be 500 million tons. As of the end of May in the 24/25 season, China produced 1116 million tons of sugar, an increase of 120 million tons, and sold 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons, with a cumulative sales rate of 72.7%. As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, China had imported 408 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 27 million tons. The market expects a decline in the sugar extraction rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi during the 25/26 season [2] International Market - ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 million tons in the 25/26 season and 488 million tons in the 24/25 season. As of October 1 in the 25/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 2.99 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 3352 million tons, an increase of 28 million tons, and a cumulative MIX of 52.68%, a year - on - year increase of 3.84 percentage points. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season will be 3490 million tons, up from 2950 million tons in the 24/25 season. Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1008 million tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of sugar is rated as - 1, with a range of [-2, 2], indicating a weak bearish outlook [4]