工业硅、多晶硅日评：关注供给端变动-20251017

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the industrial silicon market, the supply side still has a certain increase, the demand improvement is limited, and the market remains in an oversupply pattern, which may suppress the upside of the futures price. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton [1]. - For the polysilicon market, recent supply - side news has pushed up the futures price. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further, which may limit the upside space of the futures price [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: On October 17, 2025, the average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained unchanged at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 0.41% to 8,605 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: In October, the southwest production area is entering the high - cost dry season. Some silicon enterprises will gradually reduce or stop production at the end of this month or next month. If northern silicon enterprises do not resume production on a large scale, the supply will tighten. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but there may be an output increase in October. Organic silicon enterprises maintain the pre - holiday operating level, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed. The downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is limited [1]. - Investment Strategy: The market remains in an oversupply pattern, which may suppress the upside of the futures price. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,300 - 8,500 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to conduct range operations [1]. Polysilicon - Price Changes: On October 17, 2025, the price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 51.25 yuan/kg, the price of N - type re - feeding material remained unchanged at 52.75 yuan/kg, the price of N - type mixed material remained unchanged at 50.25 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 3.36% to 52,575 yuan/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, but some new production capacity may be put into operation, and the output is expected to increase slightly in October. On the demand side, the market trading was light during the National Day holiday, with few new transactions. Downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced resources, and the market is waiting for the industry meeting in October [1]. - Investment Strategy: The supply - side news has pushed up the futures price. Considering the high raw material inventory of downstream enterprises, it is difficult to have concentrated restocking in the short term, and there is significant pressure for the spot price to rise further, which may limit the upside space of the futures price. Before the implementation of supply - side reform policies, investors can try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. Industry News - Indian photovoltaic company Solex Energy received a solar module supply order worth approximately 4.379 billion yuan from five companies under the Zelestra Group. The order includes 615/620Wp double - glass (G12R specification) modules using N - type TOPCon technology and is scheduled for delivery from February to November 2026. This is an important move for Zelestra Group to expand its photovoltaic layout, and it will help Solex Energy release its production capacity [1].