Market Overview - On October 16, 2025, A-share's three major indexes showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.10% to 3916.23, the Shenzhen Component Index falling 0.25% to 13086.41, and the ChiNext Index rising 0.38% to 3037.44. The trading volume of the two markets dropped below 2 trillion to 1931.1 billion, a decrease of 141.7 billion from the previous day [1] Index Performance - The CSI 300 index fluctuated and consolidated on October 16, closing at 4618.42, up 12.13 from the previous day [2] Commodity Futures Coke and Coking Coal - On October 16, the weighted coke index fluctuated widely, closing at 1696.3, up 38.5 from the previous day. The weighted coking coal index had a narrow - range consolidation, closing at 1201.3 yuan, up 40.8 from the previous day [3][4] - Coke: The loss situation of coke enterprises has improved, and the enthusiasm for starting work has recovered. The daily average pig iron output of sample steel mills has slightly declined, but the absolute level remains above 2.4 million tons. Steel mills are consuming raw material inventories and mainly purchasing on - demand [5] - Coking coal: After the long holiday, coal mine production has recovered. Most mines are operating normally. The import volume through the China - Mongolia freight customs clearance port is stable at a high level. The profit of coke enterprises has been repaired, and the iron output of steel mills remains at a high level [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - The US sugar futures closed lower on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract stopped falling and rebounded slightly on Thursday due to bottom - fishing buying. Brazil is expected to have a 2025 sugarcane planting area of 9.355219 million hectares, an increase of 1.5% from the previous month's forecast, and a sugarcane output of 695.532937 million tons, a decrease of 1.6% from the previous year [5] Rubber - Affected by the optimistic expectation of US interest rate cuts, the Shanghai rubber market rebounded on Thursday. The prediction of tire prices by Chinese tire dealers in October shows that the proportion of those bearish on prices has increased [6] Palm Oil - On October 16, the palm oil futures price fluctuated slightly within the range. From October 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and output all increased compared to the same period last month [6][8] Soybean Meal - Internationally, the CBOT soybean futures closed higher on October 16. The US soybean crushing volume in September was higher than expected. Brazil is expected to increase its 2025/2026 soybean planting area by 3.6% from the previous month and 0.1% from last year, with an output increase of 14.4% from the previous year. Domestically, the soybean meal futures weakened on October 16. The soybean crushing volume in September was about 9.7 million tons, and it is expected to be about 8.5 million tons in October. The soybean meal inventory remains above 1 million tons, and the supply is loose [9] Live Pigs - On October 16, the live pig futures closed lower. In October, the supply of suitable - weight pigs is sufficient, and the consumption after the festival has declined. The short - term market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand [10] Shanghai Copper - The strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the global shortage of copper ore supply support the copper price. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations and the US government shutdown have disturbed the market sentiment. The price may fluctuate within a range [10] Iron Ore - On October 16, the iron ore 2601 contract closed lower. The iron ore shipment volume continued to decline slightly, the domestic arrival volume increased significantly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price is in a volatile trend in the short term [11] Asphalt - On October 16, the asphalt 2511 contract closed higher. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased slightly, and the shipment volume rebounded. However, due to capital and weather factors, the demand improvement is limited, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [11] Cotton - On Thursday night, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13340 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory decreased by 49 lots compared to the previous day. The machine - picked cotton price is 6 - 6.3 yuan per kilogram, and the short - fiber price has fallen. The cotton picking progress in Xinjiang is faster than in previous years [11] Logs - On October 16, the log futures price fell below the 800 - yuan mark. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is gradually destocking [11][12] Steel - On October 16, the steel prices fell weakly. Some steel mills have arranged maintenance and production cuts. In the short term, the steel price may be adjusted narrowly, and the decline may slow down [12] Alumina - On October 16, the alumina futures price closed at 2790 yuan/ton. The overseas bauxite supply is stable and loose, the domestic supply has not triggered large - scale production cuts, and the inventory is rising. The consumption in the northwest may be boosted by winter storage, but the overall market trading atmosphere is dull [13] Shanghai Aluminum - On October 16, the Shanghai aluminum futures price closed at 20975 yuan/ton. The supply of aluminum ingots is tightening, the inventory is at a historical low, and the downstream consumption in the peak season is strong. The aluminum price will continue to be strong in the short term [13]
国新国证期货早报-20251017
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-10-17 02:07