研究所晨会观点精萃-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and the remarks of multiple Fed officials have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and multiple industry stabilization and growth plans have been introduced, increasing policy support and boosting domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. In terms of assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; among commodity sectors, black is short - term oscillating, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and cautious waiting is recommended; precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels, and cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Macro: Overseas, the weakness of regional banks and Fed officials' remarks have led to a decline in the US dollar index and US bond yields, and an increase in risk aversion. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and policies have increased support, boosting risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, treasury bonds are short - term oscillating, black is short - term oscillating, non - ferrous metals are short - term adjusted, energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, and precious metals are short - term strongly oscillating at high levels [3]. - Stock Index: Driven by sectors such as coal, banking, insurance, and port shipping, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the acceleration of domestic economic growth and the increase in policy support, risk appetite has increased. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [4]. - Precious Metals: The precious metals market continued to rise. With the increase in risk aversion and the expectation of Fed rate cuts, spot gold reached a record high. Short - term, precious metals are strongly running, and the medium - and long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term, long positions can be held or reduced on rallies; medium - and long - term, buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - Steel: The domestic steel spot market was weak on Thursday, but the futures price rebounded slightly. Market expectations have improved due to the approaching Fourth Plenary Session and expectations for the APEC meeting. The real demand has improved marginally, and steel supply may decline stage - by - stage. The steel market is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [6]. - Iron Ore: On Thursday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, while the futures price declined. Iron production is still high, and steel mills' restocking has ended. With the narrowing of profits, the willingness to cut production may increase. The global iron ore shipment volume has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. A bearish view is recommended for iron ore prices [8]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded from the bottom. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased due to the decline in steel production. The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, and the Lanzhou charcoal market is stable. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to oscillate in a range [9]. - Glass: On Thursday, the glass futures contract oscillated weakly in a range. Supply has increased marginally, and there is an expectation of anti - involution, forming a bottom support. Demand has improved marginally during the traditional peak season but is currently slowing down. It is expected to run weakly in a short - term range [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: From January to September, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 1.2% year - on - year. Copper social inventory is at a relatively high level. The global copper mine output growth rate is expected to be high in 2026. The US economy has uncertainties, which are potential risk points. In the short - and medium - term, domestic electrolytic copper production is high, demand is facing a test, and de - stocking is less than expected [11]. - Aluminum: On Thursday, aluminum prices were strong. Aluminum social inventory decreased significantly, and aluminum rod inventory decreased slightly. The smelting profit is high, supply is rigid, imports are high, and demand is weakening marginally. It is expected to oscillate in a range in the short term [12]. - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tightening globally. The demand has improved slightly but remains weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with support from low smelting start - up and peak - season expectations, but the upside is limited by high - price consumption suppression and macro risks [13]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Trump's statement about meeting with Putin and the upcoming high - level Sino - US and Russia - US talks have raised expectations of increased Russian oil supply. Western sanctions and Sino - US trade tensions have also affected demand. Crude oil prices are expected to decline [14]. - Asphalt: As crude oil prices test support, the probability of asphalt breaking through support has increased. Demand is nearing the end, inventory pressure is increasing, and it is difficult for asphalt to have a strong upward drive [14][15]. - Carbonate Lithium: On Thursday, the carbonate lithium futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly [14]. - Industrial Silicon: On Thursday, the industrial silicon futures contract rose slightly. Production has reached a new high, and the 2511 contract faces the pressure of warehouse receipt digestion. It is expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - Polysilicon: On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract rose. With the approach of the contract change - over, the short - term trend is oscillating strongly due to rumors of storage and capacity regulation [14]. - PX: PX is weakly oscillating. Although it gets some demand support from PTA's high - start, it is likely to continue to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector [15]. - PTA: After the decline of crude oil prices, polyester is in a low - level oscillation. Downstream demand is weak, supply is high, and inventory is increasing. PTA prices will continue to run weakly [15]. - Ethylene Glycol: The sentiment of ethylene glycol is weak. Port inventory is rising, demand is weakening, and supply is increasing. It is expected to continue to be in an oversupply situation in late October [16]. - PP: The PP market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing. New capacity and restarted devices bring supply pressure, and the price is expected to be weak [18]. - LLDPE: The supply of LLDPE is increasing, demand recovery is slow, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [19]. - Urea: The urea market is rising slightly. It is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is under pressure, and its future trend depends on the implementation of export policies [19]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: Overnight, the CBOT November soybean contract rose. Strong domestic demand offset trade concerns, and the September soybean crushing volume reached a record high [20]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the start - up rate returned to normal. However, the oil mill inventory is under pressure, and the fourth - quarter soybean supply may be loose. Without guidance from US soybeans, it may oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade dynamics for rapeseed meal [20]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: With the visit of the Canadian foreign minister, the short - term risk of rapeseed oil has decreased. Soybean oil prices may be relatively weak due to inventory pressure [21]. - Palm Oil: Southeast Asian palm oil has entered the production - reduction cycle. In October, Malaysian palm oil production increased, suppressing prices, but exports also increased, providing some support [21]. - Pigs: The supply of pigs has increased, leading to a continuous decline in pig prices to a record low. Although there are signs of second - fattening, the quantity is small. With the decrease in temperature and the recovery of consumption, pig prices may stabilize [21][22].