Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors such as AI have shown divergence recently. The market risk preference has decreased, and the short - term index faces uncertainties. However, in the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the idea is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - The recent intensification of Sino - US trade disputes is conducive to the repair of the bond market in the short term, but the uncertainty of tariff progress is high in the later period. In the fourth quarter, the bond market still needs to focus on the fundamentals and institutional allocation power. The bond market may maintain a volatile trend overall [7]. - The prices of precious metals are in a stage of trending upward, and it is recommended to go long on dips [9]. - For most metals, Sino - US trade tensions bring uncertainties, but different metals have different price trends based on their own fundamentals, such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. [12][14][16]. - For steel products, Trump's new tariff remarks have a short - term impact on prices, but in the long - term, the steel price trend remains unchanged under the loose macro - environment. The short - term real demand for steel is weak, and attention should be paid to policy changes [31]. - For the black building materials sector, although the current fundamentals are weak, considering the macro - factors, the sector may gradually have the cost - performance of long - term allocation, and the key time point may be around the Fourth Plenary Session [41]. - For energy and chemical products, different products have different price trends and trading strategies based on their own supply - demand relationships and market environments, such as rubber, crude oil, methanol, etc. [52][54][55]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, the price of live pigs may have different trends in the near - term and far - term, and the price of eggs is expected to be weak in the short - term and may rebound in the medium - term [77][79]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - Market Information: The Ministry of Commerce will introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote the construction of millisecond computing networks; TSMC is in the early stage of AI application with strong demand; US Treasury Secretary said Trump will visit Japan and attend the APEC meeting [2]. - Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - Strategy View: After the previous rise, high - level sectors have diverged, and the short - term index is uncertain, but the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - Market Information: On October 16, the Ministry of Commerce said it would take measures to stabilize foreign trade. The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed on Thursday [5]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 2360 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with a net withdrawal of 3760 billion yuan [6]. - Strategy View: The short - term rise in Sino - US trade disputes is beneficial to the bond market, but the long - term depends on fundamentals and institutional allocation. The bond market may maintain a volatile trend in the fourth quarter [7]. Precious Metals - Market Information: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver rose. The overseas silver spot shortage has eased, and the Fed's policy expectations support the prices of gold and silver [8]. - Strategy View: The prices of precious metals are rising, and it is recommended to go long on dips [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - Market Information: The trade situation is volatile, the dollar index is weak, and copper prices are rising. LME copper inventory has decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have changed [11]. - Strategy View: Trump's tariff threat is uncertain. The supply - demand relationship supports copper prices, and the short - term decline may be limited [12]. Aluminum - Market Information: Domestic inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices are strong. LME aluminum inventory has decreased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have changed [13]. - Strategy View: Sino - US trade is uncertain. The pressure on aluminum ingot inventory is small, and aluminum prices may continue to be strong [14]. Zinc - Market Information: The price of Shanghai zinc index fell, and the price of LME zinc rose. The inventory and basis of zinc have changed [15]. - Strategy View: During the holiday, domestic zinc production was normal, and the short - term support for Shanghai zinc comes from the opening of the export window. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [16]. Lead - Market Information: The price of Shanghai lead index fell, and the price of LME lead fell. The inventory and basis of lead have changed [17]. - Strategy View: The lead ore inventory has increased slightly, and the structural risk of LME lead has increased. It is expected that Shanghai lead will be strong in the short - term [17]. Nickel - Market Information: Nickel prices fluctuated. The spot market trading was average, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed [18]. - Strategy View: Sino - US trade friction may have a small impact on nickel prices. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on dips if the price drops [18]. Tin - Market Information: The price of Shanghai tin main contract fell. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is mixed. The consumption in the traditional peak season has improved [20]. - Strategy View: Sino - US trade friction may affect market sentiment, but tin prices may remain high and volatile in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The price of lithium carbonate spot index rose, and the price of the LC2601 contract rose [21]. - Strategy View: Social and exchange inventories are decreasing. The spot is tight, and lithium prices may be strong in the short - term [21]. Alumina - Market Information: The price of the alumina index fell. The spot price in Shandong and the overseas price remained stable. The futures inventory decreased [22]. - Strategy View: The ore price has short - term support, but the alumina production capacity is over - supplied. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The price of the stainless steel main contract rose. The spot price and inventory have changed [25]. - Strategy View: After the holiday, the inventory has increased, and the terminal consumption is weak. The market is expected to be weak [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of the AD2511 contract rose. The trading volume and inventory have changed [27]. - Strategy View: The cost supports the price, but the price upside is limited due to market sentiment and delivery pressure [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts rose. The registered warehouse receipts and inventory have changed [30]. - Strategy View: The overall commodity market was strong, but the real demand for steel is weak. The long - term trend is unchanged, and attention should be paid to policy changes [31]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The price of the iron ore main contract fell. The spot price and basis have changed [32]. - Strategy View: The overseas iron ore shipment has decreased, and the demand is weak. The iron ore price is expected to be weak and volatile [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The price of the glass main contract rose, and the inventory increased. The price of the soda ash main contract rose, and the inventory increased [34][36]. - Strategy View: The glass supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The soda ash supply is stable, and the demand is weak. Both are expected to be weak [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The price of the manganese silicon main contract rose slightly, and the price of the ferrosilicon main contract rose. The spot price and basis have changed [38]. - Strategy View: The black building materials sector may rebound after a short - term decline. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to follow the sector's trend [39][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rose, and the price of the polysilicon main contract rose. The spot price and inventory have changed [43][45]. - Strategy View: The supply - demand of industrial silicon is stable, and the price may rise in the long - term. The polysilicon price is affected by policy and supply - demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [44][47]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price is stabilizing. The tire enterprise's operating rate has changed, and the inventory has decreased [49][51]. - Strategy View: The rubber price is stable in the short - term. It is recommended to set a stop - loss and go long on dips [52]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The price of the INE main crude oil futures rose, and the inventory of refined oil products in the port has changed [53]. - Strategy View: The oil price should not be overly bearish in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export support willingness [54]. Methanol - Market Information: The price of methanol in different regions has changed, and the basis has changed [55]. - Strategy View: The import is delayed, and the supply is slightly lower. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [55]. Urea - Market Information: The price of urea in different regions has changed, and the basis has changed [56]. - Strategy View: The urea production has decreased, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and it is recommended to wait and see [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The price of pure benzene is stable, and the price of styrene has risen. The supply and demand have changed [58]. - Strategy View: The styrene price may stop falling due to the decrease in inventory and the increase in demand [59]. PVC - Market Information: The price of the PVC01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [60]. - Strategy View: The PVC supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [61]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The price of the EG01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [62][64]. - Strategy View: The ethylene glycol supply is high, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short on rallies [65]. PTA - Market Information: The price of the PTA01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [66]. - Strategy View: The PTA supply is in a de - stocking pattern, but the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The price of the PX01 contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [68]. - Strategy View: The PX load is high, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [69][70]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The price of the PE main contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [71]. - Strategy View: The PE price is expected to fluctuate at a low level due to cost and inventory factors [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The price of the PP main contract has risen, and the supply and demand have changed [73]. - Strategy View: The PP supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be affected by cost and inventory [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - Market Information: The domestic pig price has risen. The demand in the south is increasing, and the secondary fattening in the north is weakening [76]. - Strategy View: The supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large, but the risk has been partially released. It is recommended to reduce short positions and consider positive spreads [77]. Eggs - Market Information: The national egg price has risen. The supply is stable, and the market is running well [78]. - Strategy View: After the holiday, the egg price is weak due to supply and demand factors. It is recommended to be bearish in the short - term and wait for a rebound to short [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The CBOT soybean price has risen, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory have changed. The Brazilian soybean planting area is expected to increase [80]. - Strategy View: The domestic soybean supply pressure is large, and the global supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term and trade in a range in the short - term [81]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The Malaysian palm oil export and production have increased. India's vegetable oil import has decreased. Indonesia plans to raise the palm oil export tax [82]. - Strategy View: The oils and fats are supported by supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider long positions in the medium - term [83]. Sugar - Market Information: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price is fluctuating. The Brazilian sugar export is increasing, and the domestic spot price has decreased [84]. - Strategy View: The sugar production in Brazil and the northern hemisphere is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies in the fourth quarter [85][86]. Cotton - Market Information: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price has risen. The domestic cotton production is expected to increase [87]. - Strategy View: The cotton price is affected by Sino - US trade and supply - demand. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [88].
文字早评2025/10/17星期五：宏观金融类-20251017
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-17 02:01