Group 1: PVC - Current price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; capacity utilization rate is 82.63%, up 1.21% week - on - week; Jin Yuyuan's 400,000 - ton/year calcium carbide method device is expected to end maintenance this week; social inventory is 103.38 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; average gross profit of calcium carbide method PVC producers is - 622 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene method is - 538 yuan/ton; domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises' operation rate is 40.43%, up 1.3% month - on - month [1] - Supply is at a high level, production enterprises are in concentrated maintenance, new devices are put into operation, overall supply is abundant, domestic and foreign demand is rising steadily, social inventory has decreased slightly, and cost support is weak recently. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with the upper pressure on the 01 contract at the 4765 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [1] Group 2: Gold - International gold price's upward trend continues, and spot gold has broken through $4300 per ounce for the first time, setting a new record high. Multiple institutions have issued risk warnings [2] - When multiple institutions issue risk warnings, it indicates that the market is overheated and risks are approaching. Uncertainties in the US government shutdown and Fed rate cuts have led to the continuous rise of gold, and the weakening of the US dollar index may provide some upward momentum for gold, but it is advisable to be cautious about chasing high [2] Group 3: Crude Oil - As of the week ending October 10, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 831.53 million barrels, up 4.284 million barrels from the previous week; commercial crude oil inventory was 423.785 million barrels, up 3.524 million barrels; gasoline inventory was 218.826 million barrels, down 268,000 barrels; the average daily US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, up 7,000 barrels from the previous week and 136,000 barrels from the same period last year; the average daily production in the four weeks ending October 10 was 13.568 million barrels, 1.6% higher than the same period last year [4] - The current crude oil market is under multiple pressures such as increased supply, dim demand prospects, and reduced geopolitical risks. The fundamental driving force of crude oil is weak [4] Group 4: Rubber - Thai raw material glue price is 54.1 Thai baht/kg, and cup rubber price is 50 Thai baht/kg; Hainan glue for whole - milk production price is 14,500 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex production is 15,400 yuan/ton; Cambodia's latex exports from January to September 2025 decreased 11.4% year - on - year to 220,240 tons [5] - Natural rubber is weakly declining, the spot is relatively strong, and the basis is converging. After the future rainfall in the producing areas eases, the incremental expectation is strong. Downstream tire enterprises are currently digesting inventory. Affected by the US tariff policy, the short - term driving force is weak. The low annual overall production of rubber and low inventory in China limit the decline of rubber. Recently, macro - factors have a greater impact than fundamentals, and it is recommended to operate cautiously [5] Group 5: PTA - Taiwan, China's PX is reported at $783 per ton, PXN is $232 per ton, East China PTA is reported at 4350 yuan/ton, and PTA cash - flow cost is 4325 yuan/ton; PTA social inventory is 3.2595 million tons, down 25,500 tons from the previous statistical period; PTA capacity utilization rate is 76.46%; polyester comprehensive capacity utilization rate is around 87.78% [6] - PTA supply is expected to shrink; demand is expected to be dragged down by the tariff policy. As terminal demand enters the off - season, the load of filament and staple fiber is expected to decline, which restricts the rebound space of PTA processing fees. Considering the cost side, the PX load in Asia and China remains at a relatively high level, PXN is under pressure, and crude oil is fluctuating weakly. Overall, the short - term downstream demand expectation and crude oil have a greater impact on PTA prices [6] Group 6: Live Pigs - On October 16, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 119.41, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 120.44. As of 14:00, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 18.02 yuan/kg, down 1.0% from the previous day; eggs were 7.46 yuan/kg, up 0.3% from the previous day [6] - At present, the supply - demand contradiction is still relatively prominent. The slaughter volume of large - scale farms remains high. Although the transaction in some areas has improved supported by second - fattening, the market supply has not decreased, and the slaughter demand has not increased significantly. The possibility of a sharp short - term rebound is small. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for stabilization [6] Group 7: Palm Oil - From October 1 to 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased 5.76% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased 0.21% month - on - month, and production increased 6.86% month - on - month [7] - Malaysian palm oil production has increased significantly month - on - month, and there is still inventory pressure in October. The reduction of the reference price for November also reflects this. Palm oil prices are under pressure. However, the short - term supply - demand trend of palm oil has not changed, and there is strong support below. It is recommended to go long on dips [7] Group 8: Soybeans - The monthly soybean crushing volume in September released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) far exceeded market expectations, reaching 197.863 million bushels, up 4.24% month - on - month and 11.6% year - on - year, setting the fourth - highest monthly record and the highest record for the same period in history. Analysts had expected a crushing volume of 186.34 million bushels before the report [8] - The stronger - than - expected soybean crushing volume in September has alleviated concerns about trade tensions. Bean No. 2 is expected to stabilize in the short term, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - news. Bean No. 1 is mainly stable and may have upward potential [8] Group 9: Polypropylene - The mainstream price of East China drawn - grade polypropylene is 6565 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day; polypropylene capacity utilization rate is 77.66%, up 0.39% from the previous day; the average operation rate of downstream industries is 51.85%, up 0.09 percentage points week - on - week; commercial inventory is 985,200 tons, down 26,000 tons week - on - week; the inventory of two major state - owned petrochemical companies' polyolefins is 800,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous day [8] - The supply - side pressure of polypropylene has slightly eased, demand is flat, commercial inventory has decreased, the spot trading atmosphere has weakened, merchants continue to sell at low prices, and cost support is weak. It is expected that the PP 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 6660 level. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [8] Group 10: Glass - The national average price of float glass is 1246 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the float glass operation rate is 76.35%, up 0.34% week - on - week; the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 64.2756 million weight boxes, up 2.31% month - on - month; the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 10.4 days, down 5.5% month - on - month; from January to August, the housing completion area was 276.9354 million square meters, down 17% year - on - year [9] - Currently, the profit of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, daily melting volume has rebounded slightly, downstream deep - processing enterprises' orders are still weak, float glass enterprises' inventory has increased, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and most raw - sheet enterprises have poor production and sales. It is expected that the glass 01 contract will fluctuate in the short term, with the upper pressure at the 1160 level. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for a pull - back and stabilization [9] Group 11: Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - term varieties show differentiation. The overnight variety remains flat at 1.316%; the 7 - day variety rises 0.5 BP to 1.419%; the 14 - day variety falls 0.9 BP to 1.443%, hitting a new low since January 2023; the 1 - month variety remains flat at 1.559% [9] - There is a differentiation between short - term and long - term in the capital market, indicating short - term capital tightness but loose capital expectations. Attention should be paid to the logic of loose liquidity and the stock - bond seesaw. The risk - aversion sentiment in the Treasury bond futures market has increased, which supports the bond market. However, it may still fluctuate in the medium term [9] Group 12: Silver - Fed officials have different views on the pace of rate cuts. Governor Waller advocates a cautious rate - cut step of 25 basis points each time to deal with the weak labor market, while Acting Fed Governor Milan calls for a more aggressive 50 - basis - point rate cut. The core of the disagreement lies in the speed of policy adjustment [10] - The Fed's divergence has increased, but a rate cut in October is basically priced in. The weakening of the US economy is negative for silver, but the strength of gold has created conditions for a short - squeeze in silver. The upward momentum of silver is limited. It is expected to fluctuate bullishly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautious about chasing high [10]
宁证期货今日早评-20251017
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-10-17 02:01