合成橡胶：短期反弹，趋势承压

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the synthetic rubber market rebounds due to the support of the static cash - flow cost line of butadiene rubber futures and event - driven factors like the Sino - US ship mutual sanctions. Medium - term, the market is under pressure due to large fundamental pressure [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For the butadiene rubber main contract (November contract), the daily closing price was 11,135 yuan/ton (up 240 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 76,904 lots (up 16,649 lots), the open interest was 18,411 lots (down 6,057 lots), and the trading volume was 423.201 million yuan (up 97.645 million yuan). The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 35 yuan (down 190 yuan), and the monthly spread of BR11 - BR12 was 85 yuan (up 25 yuan) [1] - Spot Market: The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, South China, and Shandong increased by 50 - 150 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) increased by 50 yuan, and the price of model 1712 remained unchanged. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 75 - 100 yuan [1] - Fundamentals: The butadiene rubber operating rate was 75.3312% (down 3.66%), the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 11,358 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the profit of butadiene rubber was - 158 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] Industry News - As of October 15, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, an increase of 500 tons (1.42% month - on - month) compared with the previous period. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased. The latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 30,800 tons, an increase of 3,050 tons compared with the previous period [2][3]