中泰期货趋势多头

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a shrinking volume and oscillating trend on Thursday, with inflation data basically in line with expectations. Fiscal policy may enter a bottleneck period, and there is a strong necessity for an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter [6]. - The steel market is expected to oscillate or experience a "golden nine, silver ten" season without a peak. The supply and demand of steel are imbalanced, with weak downstream demand and high inventory in some varieties [10]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - policies. Different commodities have different trends and investment strategies [3][6][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Finance - Stock Index Futures: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. The A - share market was in a shrinking volume and oscillating state on Thursday. Inflation data was basically in line with expectations, and fiscal policy may face a bottleneck, while the necessity of increasing monetary policy in the fourth quarter is strong [6]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Adopt an oscillating strategy and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds [7]. Black Metals - Steel: The steel market may oscillate or experience a "golden nine, silver ten" season without a peak. The downstream demand for steel is weak, and the inventory of some varieties is high. Iron ore can hold short positions or reduce positions on dips [10][11]. - Coal and Coke: The prices of coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the demand of finished products during the "golden nine, silver ten" period [12]. - Ferroalloys: From the perspective of supply and demand, silicon alloys are in a medium - long - term short - biased logic, but from the cost - profit perspective, they are in a low - valuation range. Consider buying on dips [13]. - Soda Ash and Glass: For soda ash, maintain a short - biased view and wait for the actual progress of new production capacity. For glass, adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand and other factors [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. Alumina prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is advisable to sell on rallies [18]. - Zinc: Hold short positions. The domestic zinc market has weak spot trading, and the price may follow the external market [18]. - Lithium Carbonate: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the supply increasing and the demand supporting the price [20]. - Industrial Silicon: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range. Consider selling call options [21]. - Polysilicon: It will continue to oscillate within a narrow range. Pay attention to the progress of the industry meeting [22]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand [24]. - Sugar: The end - of - season inventory data is bearish, and the supply is expected to increase. Adopt a short - selling strategy with rolling operations [26]. - Eggs: The supply and demand of eggs are in a loose state. Adopt a short - biased strategy for near - term contracts and pay attention to spot price changes [27]. - Apples: The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the impact of rainfall on the quality of new - season apples [29]. - Corn: Consider buying the 07 contract on dips or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. Pay attention to the supply pressure and the purchase of state - owned grain depots [29]. - Jujubes: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Pay attention to the price game between buyers and sellers and the procurement progress [31]. - Hogs: Hold short positions in near - term contracts and consider the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [31]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The supply exceeds demand, and the price center is moving down. Hold existing short positions and expect price recovery in the future [34]. - Fuel Oil: The price will follow the oil price, with a loose supply - demand structure [35]. - Plastic: It is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait for a rebound to go short [36]. - Methanol: The market is volatile. Wait for a rebound to go long in small quantities [38]. - Caustic Soda: The futures price is expected to oscillate due to the short - term strength of the fundamentals and the weakness of alumina [39]. - Asphalt: The price follows the oil price, and the actual demand is weak during the peak season [40]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The supply is abundant, and a long - term short - biased view is maintained [44]. - Paper Pulp: Observe the de - stocking of ports and spot transactions. Consider buying the 01 contract on dips [45]. - Urea: Adopt an oscillating strategy and pay attention to changes in cost and supply [46]. - Polyester Industry Chain: The fundamentals are not substantially strengthened, and it is expected to oscillate weakly following the cost [42].