中辉有色观点-20251017

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Buy and Hold [2] - Silver: Long - term Hold [2] - Copper: Long - term Hold [2] - Zinc: Rebound Under Pressure [2] - Lead: Rebound Under Pressure [2] - Tin: Under Pressure [2] - Aluminum: Rebound [2] - Nickel: Rebound [2] - Industrial Silicon: Rebound [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously Bullish [2] Core Views - The overall investment opportunities and risks in the non - ferrous metals and new energy metals sectors are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, macro - policies, and supply - demand relationships. For example, gold has strong short - and long - term investment value due to risk - aversion sentiment and long - term support factors; while zinc is expected to have limited upside potential in the short - term and is a bearish configuration in the medium - to - long - term due to supply increase and demand decrease [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: G2 relations stagnated, the US government remained shut down, and the Russia - Ukraine issue showed a negative turn, leading to a strong rally in gold and silver prices [3]. - Basic Logic: Although investors worry about gold being overbought and potential rebounds in interest rates and the dollar, the overall gold holdings are still at a low level. Long - term factors such as global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring support the long - term bullish trend of gold. For silver, there is a risk of short - squeeze in the short - term due to low inventory, and long - term demand is driven by global policies [4][2]. - Strategy Recommendation: For gold, maintain a long - position thinking in both the short and long terms. For silver, pay close attention to macro - sentiment and market rhythm, and consider layout on pullbacks. Long - term positions should be held continuously [5]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper consolidated in a short - term high - level range, oscillating around 85,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Industrial Logic: Freeport - McMoRan plans to change the copper concentrate pricing benchmark, and SMM expects a decline in electrolytic copper production in October. High copper prices have led to a wait - and - see attitude among downstream buyers. However, the demand for green copper in industries such as photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles remains strong [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold existing long positions in copper with trailing stop - loss protection. In the medium - to - long - term, be bullish on copper. Short - term, focus on the range of 83,500 - 88,500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,000 - 11,000 US dollars/ton for LME copper [8]. Zinc - Market Review: Zinc stopped falling and rebounded slightly [11]. - Industrial Logic: The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts an increase in the global refined zinc supply surplus in 2025 and 2026. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and zinc ingot production is expected to increase in October. Weak real estate and infrastructure have dragged down galvanized zinc demand. Overseas LME zinc inventory has a soft - squeeze risk, and domestic social inventory has slightly decreased [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, although zinc has rebounded due to improved macro and sector sentiment and inventory reduction, the upside space is limited. Consider selling hedging at high levels. In the medium - to - long - term, zinc is a bearish configuration in the sector. Focus on the range of 21,800 - 22,400 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 2,900 - 3,000 US dollars/ton for LME zinc [12]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices rebounded, while alumina continued to be weak [14]. - Industrial Logic: There is still an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. In October, China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity was high, and inventory increased during the holiday. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate increased slightly. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect arrivals, and the market is in an oversupply situation [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: In the short - term, consider buying Shanghai aluminum on dips, paying attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 20,500 - 21,500 yuan/ton [16]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices stabilized slightly, and stainless steel rebounded slightly [18]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas, the supply disruption of nickel ore from Indonesia has weakened, and domestic pure nickel inventory has increased significantly. The downstream stainless steel consumption peak season is uncertain, with increased inventory and production [19]. - Strategy Recommendation: Temporarily adopt a wait - and - see approach for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range for nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton [20]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opened low and closed high, with a gain of over 2% throughout the day [22]. - Industrial Logic: In September, the shipment of lithium carbonate from Chile to China decreased. In October, the supply - demand was in a tight balance, with domestic supply and production increasing. Overseas lithium ore supply is expected to increase in November. Lithium battery and cathode production increased in October, and social inventory is expected to continue to decline, supporting the price of lithium carbonate [23]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions in contract 2601 within the range of 74,300 - 76,000 yuan/ton [24].