Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - hold off [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal - range trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - hold off [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - cautiously hold long positions on dips, avoid chasing highs; Aluminum - wait for a pullback to go long; Nickel - hold off or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - buy on dips; Silver - range trading [1][10][17] - Energy Chemicals: PVC - oscillate weakly; Caustic soda - oscillate; Soda ash - short on 01 contract; Styrene - oscillate weakly; Rubber - oscillate; Urea - oscillate; Methanol - oscillate; Polyolefins - wide - range oscillation [1][22][32] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillate; PTA - oscillate weakly; Apples - oscillate strongly; Jujubes - oscillate strongly [1][34][36] - Agricultural and Livestock: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range oscillation; Soybean meal - range oscillation; Oils - oscillate strongly [1][38][44] Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment strategies for various futures products based on market analysis, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand dynamics, and international trade situations. It also emphasizes the need to pay attention to key events and data such as policy changes, trade negotiations, and inventory levels [5][7][23] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Index futures: On October 16, A - shares fluctuated, with most stocks falling. Trading volume shrank. Before Sino - US negotiations, the index may continue to oscillate. Medium to long - term, it is bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Futures are divided. The trading theme may revolve around Sino - US relations. It is recommended to hold off for now [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal and rebar: Coking coal prices are volatile due to rain and weak demand. Rebar prices may be weak first and then strong in October, with a focus on the 3000 level for the RB2601 contract [7] - Glass: Some companies raised prices slightly, but shipments were restricted. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It is recommended to hold off and focus on production line changes in Shahe [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Global trade tensions and supply disruptions have affected copper prices. Fundamentals are solid, and prices are expected to remain high - level oscillating. It is advisable to hold long positions on dips [10] - Aluminum: Ore prices declined, and production capacity increased slightly. Demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to go long after a pullback [12] - Nickel: Indonesia's new policy may affect supply. Supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term. It is recommended to hold off or short on rallies [17] - Tin: Supply is tight, and demand is recovering. It is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18][19] - Gold and silver: Due to factors such as delayed non - farm data and expected interest rate cuts, prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after a full pullback [19][20] Energy Chemicals - PVC: High supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract facing pressure at 4800 [23] - Caustic soda: Short - term oscillation, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2380 - 2530 range [24] - Soda ash: Supply is in excess, and prices may decline. Short the 01 contract [32][33] - Styrene: High inventory, weak demand, and expected weak oscillation. Focus on the 6900 resistance level [26] - Rubber: Supply is expected to increase, but raw material prices have a limited downside. It is expected to oscillate, with a focus on the 15000 support level [27][28] - Urea: Supply has increased, and demand is scattered. It is expected to oscillate [29] - Methanol: Supply has recovered, and demand from the main downstream is strong. Inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate [31] - Polyolefins: Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the L2601 contract focusing on 6900 support and the PP2601 contract on 6600 support [30][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Global cotton supply and demand are both increasing, but there is uncertainty between China and the US. It is expected to oscillate with a bearish outlook [34][35] - PTA: Oil prices are weak, and supply - demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the 4350 - 4600 range [35] - Apples: High - quality apples are in high demand, and prices are polarized. It is expected to oscillate strongly [36] - Jujubes: New - season jujubes are about to be harvested. Pay attention to the progress of orchard orders [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: Supply is high in the short - term, and long - term supply remains under pressure. Short on rallies for 01, 03, 05 contracts; be cautious about bottom - fishing for 07, 09 contracts [38][40] - Eggs: Short - term supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Partially take profit on short positions for the 11 contract; short on rallies for 12, 01 contracts [41][42] - Corn: New crops are coming on the market, and the market is expected to be bearish in the short - term. Look for shorting opportunities on rebounds for the 11 contract [43][44] - Soybean meal: Affected by harvest pressure and slow exports, it is expected to oscillate at low levels [44][45] - Oils: Short - term correction is limited. Look for long - entry opportunities after the correction for 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]
期货市场交易指引：2025年10月17日-20251017
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-10-17 02:41