9月社融金融数据点评：银行行业：存款延续活化，信贷需求仍偏弱

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the banking sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% in the next six months [30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the growth rate of social financing (社融) continues to decline, with a year-on-year increase of 8.7% as of the end of September, reflecting a marginal decrease from the previous month [2][17]. - The demand for credit remains weak, with new RMB loans added in September amounting to 1.29 trillion, which is a year-on-year decrease of 3,000 billion [3][19]. - The report anticipates that the government's influence on social financing will diminish, leading to a continued decline in the growth rate of social financing [2][10]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit Demand - As of September, social financing (剔除政府债) increased by 5.94% year-on-year, with a monthly addition of 3.53 trillion, which is 229.7 billion less than the previous year [2][17]. - The net financing from government bonds accounted for 34% of the new social financing, indicating a reduced marginal support [2]. - The report notes that the demand for credit is expected to recover slowly, with a focus on policy financial tools that may stimulate investment demand in the fourth quarter [3][4]. Loan and Deposit Trends - The total RMB loans increased by 6.6% year-on-year, with a notable decrease in new loans compared to the previous year [3][19]. - The report indicates that the growth in deposits continues, with new RMB deposits amounting to 2.21 trillion, although this is a decrease of 1.53 trillion year-on-year [4][19]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans remained stable at approximately 3.1% [4]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the banking sector's fundamentals show strong resilience, with expectations of a stabilization in net interest margins and net interest income entering a phase of stabilization [9][10]. - The report expresses optimism for the fourth quarter, highlighting the potential for valuation recovery in the banking sector amidst a rebalancing of market styles [10].