LPG：供应紧张预期，价格大幅拉涨，丙烯：成本支撑反弹，供需压力仍存

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on LPG and propylene, analyzing their fundamentals, market trends, and related data [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - There is an expectation of tight LPG supply, leading to a significant price increase; propylene rebounds due to cost support, but supply - demand pressure remains [1] Group 4: Fundamental Data LPG Futures Prices - PG2511 closed at 4,268 yesterday with a 2.89% daily increase, and 4,252 in the night session with a - 0.37% decrease; PG2512 closed at 4,138 yesterday with a 2.96% daily increase, and 4,115 in the night session with a - 0.56% decrease; PL2601 closed at 6,106 yesterday with a 0.44% daily increase, and 6,094 in the night session with a - 0.20% decrease; PL2602 closed at 6,150 yesterday with a 0.72% daily increase, and 6,138 in the night session with a - 0.20% decrease [1] LPG Position and Trading Volume - PG2511 had 67,381 trades yesterday, an increase of 12,220 from the previous day, and a position of 42,120, a decrease of 4,189; PG2512 had 56,943 trades yesterday, an increase of 17,573, and a position of 78,571, an increase of 5,333; PL2601 had 8,559 trades yesterday, a decrease of 3,155, and a position of 11,511, a decrease of 112; PL2602 had 2,692 trades yesterday, a decrease of 5,996, and a position of 4,835, an increase of 335 [1] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG11 contract was 232 yesterday, compared to 352 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG11 contract was 262 yesterday, compared to 402 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 109 yesterday, compared to 181 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 84 yesterday, compared to 136 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was 19 yesterday, compared to 46 the previous day [1] Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate this week was 68.8%, down from 70.9% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.1%, down from 64.1%; the alkylation operating rate was 45.1%, down from 46.1% [1] Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 6: Market Information CP Paper Goods Prices - On October 16, 2025, the November CP paper goods price for propane was 450 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 453 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton. The December CP paper goods price for propane was 454 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [5] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start - times dating back to 2023 and many end - times still undetermined [6] Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many factories across different regions in China, including Shandong, Northeast, South China, etc., have device maintenance plans, with varying normal production volumes, loss volumes, start - times, end - times, and maintenance durations [6]