基数继续推动价格回升

Group 1: CPI Analysis - September CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, an improvement of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value of -0.4%[5] - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.74 percentage points to the CPI decline[8] - Energy prices decreased by 2.7%, impacting CPI by about 0.20 percentage points[8] Group 2: Core CPI Insights - Core CPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking a marginal improvement but still below expectations[9] - The low base effect from last year significantly influenced the core CPI rebound, as it dropped to 0.1% in September 2024[9] - The month-on-month core CPI growth was 0%, weaker than seasonal trends[9] Group 3: PPI Trends - September PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.3%, a smaller decline than the expected -2.4%[14] - The PPI's tailing factor improved from -0.7% to -0.1%, contributing to the reduced decline[14] - Upstream and midstream prices showed signs of improvement, with more downstream industries experiencing price increases[16] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The PPI tailing factor is expected to drop to 0% in October, which may support a rebound in PPI[17] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policy effects, unexpected geopolitical changes, and weaker-than-expected domestic demand[22] - International oil prices are currently declining, posing a risk of input cost pressures[20]