国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black - series commodities in the futures market, suggesting that iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, silicon iron, manganese silicon, coke, and coking coal will experience wide - range fluctuations, while logs will have oscillatory and repeated trends [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Trend: Wide - range fluctuations [2][7] - Fundamentals: The previous day's closing price was 773.5 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan/ton (- 0.39%); for futures, the position of l2601 was 535,578 hands, an increase of 27,213 hands. Imported and domestic ore prices mostly declined, with a 5 - yuan/ton drop in most imported ore varieties. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [5]. - News: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength is 0 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Trend: Wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9] - Fundamentals: For RB2601 of rebar, the previous day's closing price was 3,049 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.16%); for HC2601 of hot - rolled coil, it was 3,219 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.19%). In terms of production and inventory, production of rebar decreased by 2.24 tons, hot - rolled coil by 1.45 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 18.59 tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 6.29 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 73.74 tons, hot - rolled coil by 24.58 tons [9][10]. - News: In early October 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily production of crude steel increased by 7.5%, pig iron by 3.2%, and steel decreased by 8.5%. The trend strength for both is 0 [10][11]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Trend: Cost - supported at the bottom, wide - range fluctuations [2][13] - Fundamentals: For example, the closing price of silicon iron 2511 was 5478, up 102; the closing price of manganese silicon 2601 was 5754, up 8. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [13]. - News: On October 16, prices of different grades of silicon iron and manganese silicon in various regions changed. In September, the settlement electricity prices in the main production areas of manganese silicon showed some adjustments. The trend strength for both is 0 [13][15][16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Trend: Expectations are repeated, wide - range fluctuations [2][18][19] - Fundamentals: For JM2601 of coking coal, the previous day's closing price was 1185.5 yuan/ton, up 34.5 yuan/ton (3.0%); for J2601 of coke, it was 1672.5 yuan/ton, up 30.5 yuan/ton (1.9%). Spot prices and basis spreads also changed [19]. - News: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength for both is 0 [20]. Logs - Trend: Oscillatory and repeated [2][21] - Fundamentals: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts showed different degrees of change. Spot prices of various log varieties in different regions were mostly stable [22]. - News: In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month. The trend strength is - 1 [24].