新能源产业链月度策略：New Energy Industry Chain Daily Report-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium salt market shows strong supply and demand. After the holiday, the downstream restocking enthusiasm exceeded expectations, with increased market volatility. The supply of lithium carbonate continued to reach new highs, and the demand also hit a new weekly high, but the inventory remained at a high level [4][5]. - The supply - demand situation of industrial silicon is currently acceptable, but there are uncertainties in the future. The production is expected to decline in November, and the demand is also uncertain due to the potential "production - limit and sales - control" plan in the downstream [6]. - For polysilicon, high profits drive high production, but the terminal demand is weak, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. However, there are still expectations of production - control policies, resulting in a situation of strong expectation and weak reality [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - Carbonate Lithium 01: With strong supply and demand but a weakening atmosphere, it is expected to oscillate weakly. The upstream should seize the opportunity to sell and hedge when the price rises, and downstream cathode material enterprises should focus on low - price stockpiling or buying hedges. The support level is 68,000 - 70,000, and the pressure level is 75,000 - 76,000 [14]. - Industrial Silicon 11: There is an increasing expectation of production cuts on the demand side, but the price has support below. It is expected to oscillate within a range. Currently, short - term long positions can be considered within the range. The support interval is 8,200 - 8,300, and the pressure interval is 9,200 - 9,300 [14]. - Polysilicon 11: The situation of strong expectation and weak reality continues. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. Early long positions can consider gradually realizing profits or holding cautiously. The support interval is 47,000 - 48,000, and the pressure interval is 52,000 - 53,000 [14]. - Arbitrage Recommendation: There are no good arbitrage opportunities recently [14]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 74,940 | 3.05% | 268,890 | 177,951 | - 10,572 | 30,456 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,605 | 0.41% | 209,588 | 131,649 | - 10,732 | 50,291 | | Polysilicon | 52,575 | 3.48% | 266,129 | 78,885 | - 1,229 | 8,130 | [15] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: This week, the production of lithium carbonate reached 21,066 tons, an increase of 431 tons from the previous week, hitting a new weekly high. The total sample inventory was 132,658 tons, a decrease of 2,143 tons from the previous week, with an accelerated de - stocking speed but still at a high level. The weekly apparent demand was 23,209 tons, also a new weekly high [4]. - Downstream Situation: Downstream material factories adopted a cautious and wait - and - see attitude, and the overall market trading activity was dull [4]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: The total production of industrial silicon is expected to remain high in October and gradually decline in November. The Southwest will enter the dry season in November, and some factories may reduce production, while large factories in Xinjiang have the expectation of increasing production [6]. - Downstream Situation: The traditional peak season demand is acceptable, with the production of the polysilicon segment continuing to increase. However, due to the expected "production - limit and sales - control" plan in the industry, the demand has great uncertainty [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: Driven by high profits, the production of polysilicon will exceed expectations in October. However, due to weak terminal demand, obvious inventory accumulation has occurred. As of October 10th, the national polysilicon sample inventory was 253,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,700 tons [7][8]. - Downstream Situation: The downstream has gradually started production cuts, and the national photovoltaic new installed capacity in August was only 7.36GW, a new low this year [7].