银河期货造纸板块日报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The paper pulp market has limited rebound momentum due to weak downstream procurement, sufficient spot supply, especially for broadleaf pulp, and the pressure of old warehouse receipts. The market is expected to remain in a state of weak consolidation. For the offset printing paper market, the future supply - demand structure is difficult to improve significantly. With the implementation of复产 capacity, supply is expected to increase, while demand in October is hard to be significantly boosted, showing an overall weak trend [11][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - Offset Printing Paper: The spot prices of various types of offset printing paper remained stable on a daily basis, with no change in the daily and weekly price ratios. In the futures market, the 01 - contract of offset printing paper closed at 4206, down 0.24% daily and 0.36% weekly. The trading volume decreased by 12.69% daily and 0.99% weekly, while the open interest increased by 1.14% daily and remained unchanged weekly [3]. - Paper Pulp: The spot prices of some paper pulp varieties remained stable, with some minor adjustments in individual brands. In the futures market, the 11 - contract of paper pulp closed at 4856, up 0.21% daily and 0.46% weekly. The trading volume decreased by 19.63% daily and 38.44% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 12.46% daily and 28.57% weekly. The warehouse receipt volume decreased by 3611 daily and 4430 weekly [3]. 3.2 Market Review - Paper Pulp: The futures contracts showed a slight rebound. The SP main 11 - contract closed at 4856 points at night, up 10 points or 0.21%. In the spot market, the coniferous pulp market was mostly stable, with some slightly increasing prices but limited high - price transactions. The imported broadleaf pulp market was mainly stable, and the imported chemical mechanical pulp market was in a stalemate [4]. - Offset Printing Paper: The spot prices of high - white offset paper in the Shandong market were between 4600 - 4750 yuan/ton, and some natural - white offset paper prices were between 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The prices of raw material wood pulp and wood chips were mostly stable, and the wood chip market acquisition price was strengthening. The OP2601 futures contract fluctuated, closing at 4206 points, down 10 points or 0.24% [16]. 3.3 Important Information - Paper Pulp: The environmental impact assessment pre - research work for the expansion project (Phase III) of the 200,000 - ton bamboo pulp and paper integration bamboo industry structure adjustment (replacing plastic with bamboo) of Taisheng (Guizhou) Bamboo Resources Development Co., Ltd. has been launched. In September, the year - on - year increase of core CPI continued to expand, and the year - on - year decline of PPI continued to narrow [9][10]. - Offset Printing Paper: After the National Day holiday, the PM55 high - grade cultural paper production line of Jiulong Paper's Beihai Base was successfully put into operation, with an annual production capacity of 300,000 tons. In September, the year - on - year increase of core CPI continued to expand, and the year - on - year decline of PPI continued to narrow [17][18]. 3.4 Logical Analysis - Paper Pulp: The slowdown in the shipping speed due to weak downstream procurement led to inventory accumulation. The abundant spot supply, especially for broadleaf pulp, and the pressure of old warehouse receipts made the market rebound difficult [11]. - Offset Printing Paper: The future supply - demand structure of offset paper is difficult to improve significantly. The supply is expected to increase with the implementation of复产 capacity, and the demand in October is hard to be significantly boosted, with downstream paper mills mainly purchasing for rigid demand [19]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Paper Pulp: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see. For arbitrage, continue to pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage opportunity. For options, wait and see [12][13]. - Offset Printing Paper: For single - side trading, short the 01 - contract based on the lower limit of the spot market price. For arbitrage, wait and see. For options, sell the OP2601 - C - 4400 [20][21][22].