银河期货苹果日报-20251016

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Apple Daily Report on October 16, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0014425 [2] Group 2: Market Information Spot Prices - Fuji Apple Price Index: 109.50, up 0.07 from the previous trading day [3] - 6 Kinds of Fruit Average Wholesale Price: 7.01, down 0.08 from the previous trading day [3] Futures Prices - AP01: 8510, down 122 from the previous close [3] - AP05: 8495, down 177 from the previous close [3] - AP10: 9180, down 20 from the previous close [3] Basis - Qixia First and Second - Class 80 - AP01: - 910, up 155 from the previous trading day [3] - Qixia First and Second - Class 80 - AP10: - 1580.0, up 20 from the previous trading day [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 14.79 tons, a decrease of 6.02 tons from the previous week [6] - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 6.84 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 53.27 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7% [6] - In August 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 1.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 9.84 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [6] - Yesterday, apple prices remained stable, with a slight increase in the supply of goods in the Shandong acquisition market, mostly of average quality. The overall market in the Northwest production area was stable, and the wholesale market sales and prices were stable [7] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first and second - class storage merchants was 0.4 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - In Luochuan, Shaanxi, the order price of apples was stable, with the mainstream transaction price of semi - commercial products above 70 being 3.5 - 4.0 yuan/jin, and the high price being 4.0 - 4.5 yuan/jin. In Qixia, Shandong, the in - warehouse transactions of apples were few, and the current transactions were mostly general goods [8] Trading Logic - This year, the fruit diameter in some areas of Shaanxi is small, and there are water - crack problems due to continuous rainfall. The high opening price of late - maturing Fuji and high cost of futures warehouse receipt production are expected to keep the futures price oscillating slightly stronger in the short term [9] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that apples will oscillate strongly in the short term due to the expected low high - quality fruit rate [10] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10] Group 4: Related Attached Figures - Figures include the price of Qixia First and Second - Class Paper - Bagged 80, the price of Luochuan Semi - Commercial Paper - Bagged 70, AP contract main basis, AP10 - AP01, etc. [14][16][22]