Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various commodity futures, including agricultural products, ferrous metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It analyzes the market conditions, relevant information, logical reasoning, and trading strategies for each commodity or commodity group. Summary by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The market is generally stable with a fluctuating trend. International soybean pressure is high, and domestic soybean meal may decline under supply pressure. Suggestions include shorting at high points for the 05 contract, conducting M11 - 1 positive spreads, and selling call options at high points [15][16][17]. - Sugar: The international sugar price is weak, and the domestic market is expected to follow the external trend. It is recommended to short at high points, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [18][23][24]. - Oils and Fats: Affected by Indonesia's tax adjustment, the short - term trend is volatile. It is advisable to go long on dips, consider OI 1 - 5 positive spreads without chasing high, and keep an eye on options [25][26][27]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The pressure of new grain has weakened, and the price trend is strong. Suggestions are to go long on dips for the 12 - month corn externally, hold long positions for the 01 contract, and gradually build long - term long positions for the 05 and 07 contracts [27][29][30]. - Hogs: The supply pressure is still high, and the price is expected to decline. A short - side approach is recommended, along with LH15 reverse spreads, and keep an eye on options [30][31]. - Peanuts: Affected by the weather in the producing areas, the short - term trend is strongly volatile. It is advisable to go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts without chasing high, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [31][33][35]. - Eggs: The demand is good, and the price has stabilized. It is recommended to close out previous short positions, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [35][36][37]. - Apples: The quality of new fruits is average, and the price is supported. The short - term price is expected to be strongly volatile. It is advisable to go long on dips, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [38][40][41]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The fundamentals have not changed much, and the price is mainly fluctuating. It is expected that the US cotton will fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton will remain stable. Keep an eye on arbitrage and options [42][43][44]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The supply - demand situation has improved, and the price has rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and it is advisable to go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar at low points, and keep an eye on options [45][46][47]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot trading is good, and there is support at the bottom. It is not advisable to chase high at present, and it is safer to go long on dips. Keep an eye on arbitrage and options [47][48][49]. - Iron Ore: A bearish view is taken in the medium - term. It is advisable to short in the medium - term, conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage, and keep an eye on options [50][51][53]. - Ferroalloys: After falling to a low level, they rebounded, but the upward drive is not strong. They are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on short - term rebounds, and sell out - of - the - money put options [54][55]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Precious Metals: Due to the credit explosion of US regional banks, gold and silver prices have risen strongly. It is advisable to hold previous long positions cautiously based on the 5 - day moving average, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [56][57][59]. - Copper: In the short - term, there is a need for consolidation, and the long - term trend remains unchanged. It is advisable to go long on dips, hold long positions in cross - market positive spreads, and keep an eye on options [62][63][66]. - Alumina: The supply - demand surplus leads to a weak trend. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [66][67][68]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The downstream demand shows resilience, and the medium - term trend is strong. It is advisable to go long on dips, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [71][72][73]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The macro panic has subsided, and the price can be bought on dips. It is advisable to go long on dips, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [73][76][77]. - Zinc: There are both bullish and bearish factors. It is advisable to short at high points, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [77][78][80]. - Lead: The supply and demand are both weak. Be vigilant about the price falling from a high level. It is advisable to hold short positions, and sell out - of - the - money call options [81][82][84]. - Nickel: The inventory increase reflects an oversupply, and the price is under pressure. It is advisable to short at the upper edge of the fluctuation range, and sell a 2512 contract straddle [85][86][89]. - Stainless Steel: The demand is weak, testing the cost support. It is advisable to short on rebounds, and keep an eye on arbitrage [89][90][91]. Energy and Chemical Products - Industrial Silicon: It fluctuates within a range. It is advisable to short at high points and go long at low points. Wait for a full correction in the short - term, and keep an eye on arbitrage and options [91][92][95]. - Polysilicon: After an intraday correction and stabilization, continue to go long. It is advisable to go long after a correction, hold 2511 and 2512 contract reverse spreads, and adjust the previous double - buying strategy [95][96]. - Lithium Carbonate: Supported by demand and with uncertain supply, the price is rising in a volatile manner. It is advisable to go long in a volatile market, and sell out - of - the - money put options [97][100][101]. - Tin: The supply and demand are both weak. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and keep an eye on the market [101][102].
农产品每日早盘观察-20251017
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-17 03:15