能源化策略日报：煤炭上涨将?撑煤化?，中国对美征收港?费利空美国原油实货-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for different energy and chemical products, the mid - term outlooks are provided, including "weak and volatile", "volatile", and "weak - trending with volatility". 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coal price increases support the coal - chemical industry, while China's port fees on US - related vessels negatively impact US crude oil physicals. The contrast between strong coal and weak oil prices makes the hedging between coal - chemical and oil - chemical industries potentially valuable again [2][3]. - For coal - chemical products, PVC, methanol, and urea are considered for long - positions, with PVC potentially being more stable in terms of cost. For oil - chemical products, olefins are short - positions, and the new styrene production device may face challenges due to high inventory [3]. - Overall, the energy and chemical market still takes crude oil as a reference and is expected to continue its weak - trending with volatility [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Outlook - Crude Oil: Macro - factors affect the rhythm, and the fundamentals are continuously under pressure. The EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have accumulated, and refinery operating rates have declined. The global supply is in an increasing period, and there is pressure for accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [10]. - Asphalt: The decline has slowed, and the asphalt futures price is expected to be volatile. The geopolitical premium of crude oil has declined, and the supply of asphalt has increased, with high inventory pressure. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued [12]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The fuel oil futures price has entered a volatile mode. The reduction of geopolitical factors and the increase in supply have affected the price, and it is expected to be volatile [12]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the crude oil price and is volatile. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [14]. - Methanol: Slightly boosted by coal, it is in a wide - range volatile state. There is still value in going long at a low level, but the upside space is limited [25][26]. - Urea: The spot price is firm, but the futures price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern is still supply - strong and demand - weak, and it is expected to be volatile [26][27]. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Supported by coal prices, it rebounds at a low level, but the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure. The inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [20][22]. - PX: The futures price stops falling and rebounds, but the increase is limited, and the profit is repaired month - on - month. It is expected to fluctuate with costs and macro - sentiment [15]. - PTA: New devices are about to be put into production, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is expected to follow the cost and be weak and volatile [15]. - Short - Fiber: Downstream speculative stocking promotes inventory reduction. The supply - demand is relatively healthy in the short term, and the processing fee is stable. It can consider long - short hedging operations [22]. - Bottle Chip: The improvement of the processing fee stimulates the moderate increase of production. The absolute price follows the upstream cost, and the profit has support at the bottom [23][24]. - Propylene (PL): Affected by weak oil prices and macro - factors, it is weak and volatile [31]. - PP: Affected by weak oil prices, it continues to decline. The high inventory suppresses the price, and it is expected to be weak and volatile [30]. - Plastic: There is slight support near the previous low, and it is weak and volatile. The fundamental support is limited, and the upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory [29]. - Styrene: Affected by commodity sentiment and device news, it shows a "V" - shaped trend. The high inventory is the main pressure, and it is expected to try to widen the profit [19][20]. - PVC: With low valuation and weak expectations, it is volatile. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost is moving down, and it is expected to be weak [32]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is volatile. The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the upward driving force is insufficient [32][33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., and their changes [34]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: It shows the basis, its changes, and the number of warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [35]. - Inter - variety Spread: The inter - variety spreads between different products such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., and their changes are presented [37].