对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱PTA：中期仍偏弱MEG：1-5月差反套

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - PTA: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - MEG: Reverse spread for 1-5 months [1] Core Viewpoints - PX has a weak unilateral trend, and it is recommended to go long on PXN. The only potential positive factor may come from the aromatics segment. With the improvement of MX blending demand, the PX-MX spread has significantly compressed, and its impact on PX valuation should be monitored. There is still a supply-demand gap for PX [9]. - Hold the 1-5 reverse spread for PTA. The unilateral trend is weak. The cost support for the polyester industry chain is weak, the spot market supply in East China is still sufficient, the new device is about to be put into production, and attention should be paid to filament production cuts and the impact of additional fees on textile and clothing export demand [9]. - MEG has a weak unilateral trend in the context of oversupply. Although there may be potential positives from a possible decline in port arrivals, the overall trend remains weak [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - Crude oil: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, and the possibility of renewed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the November contract dropped $0.81 to $57.46 per barrel, a -1.39% decline; ICE Brent crude oil futures for the December contract fell $0.85 to $61.06 per barrel, a -1.37% decline. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2512 contract rose 0.7 to 445.6 yuan per barrel, but dropped 8.5 to 437.1 yuan per barrel in after-hours trading [4]. - PX: The price of naphtha was weak at the end of the session. The current estimated price of November MOPJ is $542 per ton CFR. Affected by the contract rollover, today's PX price closed lower. One lot of December Asian spot was traded at $786. At the end of the session, the physical December PX was negotiated at $786/805, with a sell-off at $790 in January, and a buy order at +1.5 for the December/January rollover. Today's PX valuation is $786 per ton, down $1 from yesterday. Market participants remain cautious about PX spot prices and demand due to the sluggish downstream PTA activity [4]. - PTA: In mainland China, the 3.6 million-ton capacity of Yisheng New Materials has reached full load, and the capacities of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 million tons and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 million tons have been increased. As of Thursday, the PTA load is at 76.7%. According to the calculation of PTA daily production/(domestic PTA capacity/365), the current PTA operating rate is around 82.6% [6]. - MEG: As of October 16, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 77.16% (a 2.08% increase from the previous period), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 81.89% (a 3.06% increase from the previous period) [6]. - Polyester: This week, the operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers has remained basically stable. As of now, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn is around 75%. This week, the changes in polyester device operations are mainly load adjustments, with a slight decrease in polyester filament and a moderate increase in bottle chips. Overall, the polyester load has fluctuated slightly. As of Thursday, the preliminary estimate of the polyester load in mainland China is around 91.4%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are differentiated today, with an average sales rate of around 60% as of 3:45 pm. The sales of some factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 120%, 55%, 100%, etc. The sales of direct-spun polyester staple fiber have improved today, with an average sales rate of 79% as of 3:00 pm, and the sales of some factories are 120%, 60%, etc. [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p-xylene, PTA, and MEG is -1, indicating a weak outlook [8] Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC yesterday were 6376, 4456, 4089, 6092, and 445.9 respectively, with changes of 64, 34, 32, 42, and -0.1, and percentage changes of 1.01%, 0.77%, 0.79%, 0.69%, and -0.02% [2]. - Spot: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent yesterday were $786.17 per ton, 4360 yuan per ton, 4126 yuan per ton, $545.5 per ton, and $61.78 per barrel respectively, with changes of -0.5, 35, 4, -3.5, and -0.83 [2]. - Spot Processing Fees: The prices of PX-naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short fiber processing fee, bottle chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha-Dubai crude oil spread yesterday were 221.42, 203.52, 277.04, 107.66, and -4.34 respectively, with changes of -1.83, 38.34, -20.42, -8.47, and 0 [2]