软商品日报：巴西中南部产量高于预期，白糖震荡为主-20251017

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways", and for cotton is also "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer. Sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets. The impact of adverse weather on sugar beet and cane production needs further assessment. Sugar prices are expected to move sideways [1][3] - In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are declining, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is support at the bottom for cotton prices. Cotton prices are expected to range between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [1][3] - The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Information - Nanning's spot sugar price is 5,790 yuan, Kunming's is 5,760 yuan, and Xinjiang's spot cotton price is 14,500 yuan [1] Market - The U.S. sugar closed at 15.85, up 1.15%. The U.S. cotton closed at 63.78, down 0.08% [1] Supply and Demand - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer. Sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets [1] - In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increased the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are declining, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, there is support at the bottom for cotton prices [1] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 8,438, with a change of 0.00%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 2,724, down 1.77% [2] Conclusion - In August, excessive rainfall in Inner Mongolia was unfavorable for sugar beet sugar accumulation and harvesting, delaying the sugar factory's start - up time. The impact on sugar beet sugar production needs further assessment. In late September and early October, typhoons in major sugar cane - producing areas such as Guangdong and Guangxi caused sugar cane lodging, and the post - disaster recovery of sugar cane growth needs continuous attention [3] - The meteorological conditions during the cotton growth period were suitable, with local yields and quality higher than expected. As of October 6, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was 24.9%, 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The opening price of seed cotton was flat to slightly lower year - on - year, and there is a risk of decline after the centralized listing. Cotton prices are expected to range between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan [3] Data Overview External Quotes - The U.S. sugar price rose from 15.67 to 15.85, up 1.15%. The U.S. cotton price fell from 63.83 to 63.78, down 0.08% [4] Spot Prices - Nanning's sugar price remained at 5,790 yuan, Kunming's sugar price fell from 5,770 to 5,760 yuan, down 0.17%. The cotton index 328 fell from 3,281 to 3,280, down 0.07%. Xinjiang's cotton price fell from 14,600 to 14,500 yuan, down 0.68% [4] Spread Overview - Various spreads of sugar and cotton futures contracts showed different changes, such as SR01 - 05 up 6.25%, SR05 - 09 down 5.56%, etc. [4] Import Prices - The cotton cotlookA price remained at 74.85, with a change of 0.00% [4] Profit Margins - The sugar import profit remained at 1,482 yuan, with a change of 0.00% [4] Options - The implied volatility of sugar and cotton options contracts was provided, such as SR601C5400 with an implied volatility of 0.0847 [4] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Sugar warehouse receipts remained at 8,438, with a change of 0.00%. Cotton warehouse receipts fell from 2,773 to 2,724, down 1.77% [4]