国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the trends of various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [2][11]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Mid - term trend is weak. Aromatic hydrocarbon valuation cost support is weak, but there may be a positive impact from the improvement of MX blending demand. Suggest to focus on long PXN [11]. - PTA: Hold 1 - 5 reverse spreads. The unilateral trend is weak. Cost support is weak, supply is sufficient, and new devices are about to be put into production. Pay attention to polyester filament production cuts and the impact of additional shipping fees on textile exports [11]. - MEG: The supply is in surplus, and the unilateral trend is weak. Although there may be potential positive factors from port arrivals, the overall supply is still sufficient [12]. 3.2 Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move in a range. The trend strength is neutral [13][14]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, there is a rebound, but the medium - term trend is under pressure. The rebound is due to cost support and event - driven factors, while the fundamental pressure remains large [17][19]. 3.4 Asphalt - The asphalt market has a flat shipment situation. The trend is weak, with a decline in production, a decrease in factory and social inventories, and a weakening of cost support from crude oil [20][21][33]. 3.5 LLDPE - The LLDPE trend is weak. Affected by factors such as increased supply, geopolitical situation, and trade issues, the market inventory pressure is large, and the cost support from crude oil is limited [34][35]. 3.6 PP - The PP trend remains weak. Trade wars, falling oil prices, and high supply suppress the market price, and the short - term situation is difficult to reverse fundamentally [37][38]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - The rebound height of caustic soda is limited. Although the spot pressure in Shandong is temporarily relieved, the alumina production reduction expectation suppresses the valuation height [42]. 3.8 Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move in a range. The price is affected by factors such as futures decline, high inventory, and weak downstream demand [46][49]. 3.9 Glass - The glass original sheet price is stable. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the downstream purchases at low prices. The futures market has a slight improvement in production and sales [51][52]. 3.10 Methanol - The methanol market is expected to move in a range. The port market price is strong due to inventory reduction, while the inland market is weak [54][57]. 3.11 Urea - In the short term, it moves in a range, and the medium - term trend is under pressure. The enterprise inventory is rising, the spot trading is weak, and the export increment may not be able to make up for the weak domestic demand [59][61]. 3.12 Styrene - Stop loss on short positions. The short - term trend is mainly range - bound. The expected production reduction of pure benzene in October turns the inventory accumulation expectation into a de - stocking expectation [62][63]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market changes little. The market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with supply at a high level and downstream demand stable [64]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - LPG: Due to the expectation of supply shortage, the price has risen significantly. - Propylene: There is a rebound supported by cost, but the supply - demand pressure still exists [66]. 3.15 PVC - The PVC trend is weak. The market inventory pressure is large, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export growth may slow down [73]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: It moves in a narrow range, and the short - term weakness persists. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It continues to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [76]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is in a range - bound market, affected by factors such as freight rates, shipping capacity, and exchange rates [78].