郑棉：上下空间暂有限

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroeconomic uncertainties increase with the US government shutdown, suspension of USDA reports, and fluctuating tariff statements from Trump, leading to a recent weakening of US cotton due to lack of news guidance. In China, new cotton is concentrated for listing, with the seed - cotton purchase price rising in the second half of the National Day holiday and then falling recently due to Sino - US tariff uncertainties. The "Golden September" performance is below expectations, and the market has low expectations for "Silver October" [3]. - Currently, the mainstream seed - cotton purchase price in the market has limited pressure on the futures market for hedging when converted to lint prices. With general downstream demand and expected yield increase, the upward momentum is also limited. Whether there will be a price increase depends on the later trend of seed - cotton prices. In the short term, both upward and downward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is insufficient [3]. - Attention should be paid to macro factors, demand, and seed - cotton prices. The significant year - on - year increase in the quantity of cotton under official inspection calls for attention to the difference between actual yield and expected yield [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Production and Sales - As of October 10, 2025, the national new cotton picking progress was 32.6%, 2.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 3.1 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The national delivery rate was 73.1%, 12.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 20.5 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [3]. - As of October 12, the cumulative officially inspected lint cotton nationwide was 37.48 tons, while in the same period of the previous year, only 15.03 tons were inspected [3]. - As of October 13, 24:00, the 2025/26 cotton inspection volume was about 41.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 180% [37]. 3.2 Textile and Apparel Exports - In September, China's textile and apparel exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%, with the decline narrowing by 3.6 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, clothing exports were $12.45 billion, a decrease of 8%, and textile exports were $11.97 billion, an increase of 6.5% [4]. - From January to September, China's cumulative textile and apparel export volume was $221.69 billion, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [4]. 3.3 Industry Operation - As of Monday this week, the yarn mill operating load index was 50.7, up from the end of September; the cloth mill operating load index was 52, down from the end of September but showing an upward trend after the holiday, and further tracking is needed [4]. - In terms of finished product inventory, both yarn mills and cloth mills saw inventory accumulation after the holiday. In terms of raw material inventory, the cotton inventory of yarn mills has been on a downward trend since mid - to - late September and is currently at a slightly higher level compared to the same period in previous years, indicating that yarn mills have no strong intention to replenish raw materials. The cotton yarn inventory of weaving mills is currently at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, but after a rapid increase in the early stage, the current inventory level has stabilized [4]. 3.4 Price Trends - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the price of the Zhengzhou cotton active contract increased by 50 yuan/ton, while the ICE active contract price decreased by 2.29 cents/lb [6]. - From September 30 to October 13, 2025, the CotlookA price index decreased by 1.60 cents/lb, and the Indian S - 6 spot price decreased by 1500 rupees/candy [9]. - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the import yarn port pick - up prices of India C32S, Vietnam C32S, and Indonesia C32S decreased by 80 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively [10]. - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the import cotton arrival prices of US EMOT M and Brazilian M decreased under different tariff methods [10]. 3.5 US Cotton Situation - As of the week ending September 18, 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week, a 53% decrease from the four - week average, and a 19% decrease year - on - year. The US government shutdown led to the suspension of new data release by the USDA [22]. 3.6 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of Thursday this week, the total of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 2869 lots, and the total of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 6 lots [67].