生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft - commodity and fresh - fruit sectors show different market trends. In the soft - commodity sector, sugar prices are under pressure but with limited downside, and pulp has high supply and limited demand improvement. In the fresh - fruit sector, apple prices are in high - level oscillation, and jujube prices are affected by various factors such as inventory and seasonality [3][10]. - For trading strategies, different approaches are recommended for each commodity. For example, for sugar, it is advisable to wait and consider selling wide - straddle options; for pulp, a bearish approach on rebounds is suggested [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - Fresh - fruit Futures: For Apple 2601, use an interval trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a resistance range of 9000 - 9200. For Jujube 2601, consider short - selling at high prices, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a resistance range of 11500 - 12000 [20]. - Soft - commodity Futures: For Sugar 2601, wait and see. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish approach in the interval, with a support range of 4700 - 4750 and a resistance range of 5100 - 5200. For Double - offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a resistance range of 4400 - 4500. For Cotton 2601, hold short positions cautiously, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a resistance range of 13600 - 13700 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - Fundamentals: In August 2025, fresh apple exports were about 68,400 tons, a 27.59% month - on - month increase but a 17.57% year - on - year decrease. As of September 25, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 147,900 tons, a 60,200 - ton week - on - week decrease and a 30,700 - ton year - on - year decrease [21]. - Spot Market: Prices in Shandong were stable with little trading, and new apples haven't been widely available due to rainfall. In Shaanxi, merchants were interested in high - quality apples. In other regions, prices in Gansu remained high, and prices in Liaoning varied by variety. In the sales areas, the arrival volume was lower than usual, and prices were stable [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses was 9167 tons, a 0.39% week - on - week decrease but a 93.89% year - on - year increase. Attention should be paid to the circulation of old jujubes and price changes before the new jujubes are harvested [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market In September, the forecasted arrival of duty - quota - free raw sugar was 460,000 tons, and the estimated sugar import was 600,000 - 700,000 tons. Brazil's 2025 sugarcane planting area was estimated to be 9.355219 million hectares, and the output was estimated to be 695.532937 million tons. Spot sugar prices in Yunnan and Guangxi decreased slightly [26]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The offer price of NBSK to Chinese traders was 650 US dollars per ton, but sellers refused to lower the price. A European supplier sold NBSK at 650 US dollars per ton. The price of Canadian and Nordic NBSK remained at 680 - 700 US dollars per ton. A major Brazilian supplier planned to increase the price of South American bleached hardwood pulp to the Asian market by 20 US dollars per ton [29]. 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market In Shandong, the mainstream price of high - white double - offset paper was 4600 - 4750 yuan per ton, and that of some natural - white paper was 4300 - 4500 yuan per ton. In Guangdong, the mainstream price of high - white paper was 4600 - 4700 yuan per ton. In Beijing, the mainstream price of high - white paper was 4700 - 4800 yuan per ton. In Tianjin, the price was 4900 - 5000 yuan per ton. Supply was relatively loose, and demand showed no improvement [30][31]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market In September 2025, Vietnam's cotton textile output was 102 million square meters, a 9.4% year - on - year and 4.28% month - on - month increase; clothing output was 554 million pieces, a 13.52% year - on - year decrease but a 1.52% month - on - month increase. In August, Thailand's cotton import was about 9057 tons, a 43.5% month - on - month decrease but a 1.2% year - on - year increase [33]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review - Apple 2601 closed at 8510, down 155 or 1.79%. - Jujube 2601 closed at 11360, up 255 or 2.30%. - Sugar 2601 closed at 5408, up 5 or 0.09%. - Pulp 2511 closed at 4856, unchanged. - Cotton 2601 closed at 13320, up 50 or 0.38% [33]. 3.3.2 Spot Market Review - Apples were priced at 3.75 yuan per jin, unchanged month - on - month but up 0.50 yuan year - on - year. - Jujubes were priced at 9.40 yuan per kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - Sugar was priced at 5790 yuan per ton, unchanged month - on - month but down 750 yuan year - on - year. - Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was priced at 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but down 700 yuan year - on - year. - Double - offset paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was priced at 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month but down 450 yuan year - on - year. - Cotton was priced at 14664 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 849 yuan year - on - year [40]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific analysis of basis situation was provided other than relevant figures and sources. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - For apples, the 10 - 1 spread was 535, down 1 month - on - month and 97 year - on - year, with an expected volatile trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For jujubes, the 9 - 1 spread was 255, up 315 month - on - month and down 140 year - on - year, with an expected range - bound trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For sugar, the 1 - 5 spread was 34, up 2 month - on - month and 19 year - on - year, with an expected volatile trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see. - For cotton, the 1 - 5 spread was - 55, up 5 month - on - month and 25 year - on - year, with an expected range - bound trend, and the recommended strategy was to wait and see temporarily [61]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning No specific analysis of futures positioning was provided other than relevant figures and sources. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apples had 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Jujubes had 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Sugar had 8438 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month but down 1280 year - on - year. - Pulp had 227468 warehouse receipts, down 208 month - on - month and 176879 year - on - year. - Cotton had 2724 warehouse receipts, down 49 month - on - month and 1349 year - on - year [90]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific analysis of option - related data was provided other than relevant figures and sources.