华宝期货晨报成材：基本面螺纹略强于热卷钢价低位运行-20251017

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are operating at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content - Production Data: According to weekly data from Steel Union, rebar production decreased by 22,400 tons to 2.0116 million tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 14,500 tons to 3.2184 million tons, and the total production of the five major steel products decreased by 63,600 tons to 8.5695 million tons [1]. - Inventory Data: Rebar total inventory decreased by 185,900 tons to 6.4105 million tons, hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 62,900 tons to 4.1919 million tons, and the total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 184,600 tons to 15.8226 million tons [1]. - Apparent Demand Data: Rebar apparent demand increased by 737,400 tons to 2.1975 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 245,800 tons to 3.1555 million tons, and the total apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 1.3996 million tons to 8.7541 million tons [1]. - Steel Mill Operating Rate: The operating rate of 29 section steel production enterprises in Tangshan was 40%, and the capacity utilization rate was 47.48%. It is expected that some section steel mills in Tangshan will resume production on October 17th, and the operating rate will rise significantly [1]. - Sales Policy: On October 16th, Guangdong Zhongnan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Yangchun New Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., and Zhuhai Yueyufeng Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. issued a notice on price - limited sales [1]. - Market Situation: After reaching a new low yesterday, steel products rebounded slightly. In terms of variety fundamentals, rebar's apparent demand increased rapidly and there was a slight inventory reduction, so its fundamentals were stronger than that of hot - rolled coil. Overall, the demand for steel products remained sluggish, with no improvement in the real estate market and a slowdown in the automotive and home appliance industries. Recent Sino - US trade frictions also led to a negative macro - market. Under the resonance of macro and fundamentals, steel prices were running weakly [1].