农产品日报：生猪供应充足，猪价偏弱震荡-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating - Both the pig and egg industries are rated as "Cautiously Bearish" [2][5] Core Views - In the pig market, the pre - holiday stocking during the double festivals was lackluster, demand growth was limited. The National Day holiday in October affected the pig slaughter schedule, leading to an accelerated post - holiday slaughter rhythm by large farms and concentrated slaughter by smallholders. Demand is expected to decline in the short term after the holiday, and the oversupply situation is unlikely to change in the short term [2] - In the egg market, egg prices dropped rapidly after the holiday. Traders were cautious in purchasing, leading to passive inventory accumulation at all levels. Consumption demand returned to the off - season normal this week, with no short - term positive factors. The large supply pressure during the seasonal off - season suppressed spot prices, and market sentiment was pessimistic [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2601 contract was 11,905 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton or 2.38% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live hogs was 11.21 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.44 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 10.73 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural Product Prices: On October 16, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.34 points, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.40 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 18.02 yuan/kg, down 1.0%; beef was 66.22 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; mutton was 62.07 yuan/kg, up 0.7%; eggs were 7.46 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; white - striped chickens were 17.73 yuan/kg, up 1.3% [1] Market Analysis - The pre - holiday stocking was lackluster, demand growth was limited. The holiday affected the slaughter schedule, and post - holiday supply pressure increased while demand declined in the short term. The oversupply situation is hard to change in the short term [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [2] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract was 2,818 yuan/500 kilograms, down 37 yuan or 1.30% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.53 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Inventory: On October 16, 2025, the production - link inventory was 1.32 days, down 0.26 days or 16.46% from the previous day; the circulation - link inventory was 1.4 days, down 0.16 days or 10.26% [3] Market Analysis - Egg prices dropped rapidly after the holiday, traders were cautious, and all levels had passive inventory accumulation. Consumption demand returned to the off - season normal, with no short - term positive factors. Supply pressure suppressed prices, and market sentiment was pessimistic [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]