农产品日报：现货价格整体上调，豆粕维持震荡-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) and corn sectors is "Cautiously Bearish" [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic bean meal market is mainly oscillating due to the lack of clear data guidance caused by the US government shutdown. The downstream soybean supply in China remains sufficient in the short - term, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The harvest of US soybeans is accelerating, and the sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Attention should be paid to policy changes [2] - For the corn market, new corn in some northeastern regions of China is starting to be listed. Although the opening price is slightly higher than last year, the overall corn output has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline with the concentrated listing of new - season corn. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the acquisition situation after the listing of new grain, as well as the impact of rainfall on corn quality [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 2907 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.34%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2364 yuan/ton, a change of + 7 yuan/ton (+ 0.30%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3000 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 + 93, a change of + 20 from the previous day; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, the bean meal spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was M01 - 7, a change of + 10 from the previous day; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2580 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was RM01 + 216, a change of + 3 from the previous day [1] - Market Information: The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters expects the soybean export volume in Brazil in October 2025 to be 731 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 712 million tons and a 65% increase compared to 443 million tons in October last year. The expected soybean export volume from January to October is 1.02 billion tons, compared to 934.9 million tons in the same period last year, and the expected annual export volume will reach a record 1.1 billion tons [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The domestic bean meal market lacks clear data guidance due to the US government shutdown and is mainly oscillating. The downstream soybean supply in China is sufficient, with continuous arrival of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The harvest of US soybeans is accelerating, and the sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Attention should be paid to policy changes [2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2111 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton (+ 0.48%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2376 yuan/ton, a change of - 25 yuan/ton (- 1.04%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was C11 + 29, with no change from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS11 + 174, a change of + 25 from the previous day [3] - Market Information: On October 15, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics estimated that the total corn planting area in Brazil in 2025 would be 22.163 million hectares, a 3.8% increase from the previous month's estimate and a 0.2% increase from last year's planting area. The total corn output is estimated to be 138.438 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous month's estimate and a 20.7% increase from last year's output [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - New corn in some northeastern regions of China is starting to be listed. Although the opening price is slightly higher than last year, the overall corn output has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline with the concentrated listing of new - season corn. Rainfall has affected the quality of corn during the harvest period, and attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the acquisition situation after the listing of new grain [4][5] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]