国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251017

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: Neutral [2] - Stainless Steel: Neutral [2] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [2] - Industrial Silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Bullish [2] 2. Core Views - Nickel: With the macro - sentiment turning bearish, nickel prices are oscillating at a low level [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Pressured by both macro and real - world factors, the downside is limited by cost [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Accelerated inventory depletion and continuous reduction of warehouse receipts lead to a bullish oscillation [2][7] - Industrial Silicon: In a range - bound oscillation pattern [2][10] - Polysilicon: Recommended to buy on dips [2][11] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 121,270 yuan, with a decrease of 3,210 yuan compared to T - 5; the stainless - steel main contract's closing price is 12,615 yuan, down 245 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel's main contract is 67,146, a decrease of 63,718 compared to T - 5; the stainless - steel main contract's trading volume is 162,150, down 14,940 from T - 5 [4] - Macro and Industry News: Indonesian forestry workgroups took over a nickel mine area, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and new regulations on mine RKAB approval were issued. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China and export controls on key software [4][5][6] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2511 contract is 74,940 yuan, up 1,600 yuan compared to T - 5; the 2601 contract's closing price is 75,080 yuan, up 1,640 yuan from T - 5. The warehouse receipt volume is 30,456 hands, a decrease of 11,923 compared to T - 5 [7] - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose 27 yuan/ton. This week's lithium carbonate production increased by 431 tons, and the industry inventory decreased by 2143 tons. Hainan Mining's Mali Buguoni lithium mine project shipped 30,000 tons of lithium concentrate [8][9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Si2511 contract is 8,605 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan compared to T - 5; the PS2511 contract's closing price is 52,575 yuan/ton, up 1,810 yuan from T - 5. Industrial silicon's social inventory is 56.2 million tons, an increase of 1.7 million tons compared to T - 5; polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock price is 52,750 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan from T - 5 [11] - Macro and Industry News: In September 2025, India imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese solar cells for 3 years [11][13]