棕榈油:提税支持b30,关注棕油下方支撑豆油,区间运行,关注中美经贸关系豆粕,资金技术面交易,低位震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-17 04:55
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: Tax increase supports B50, focus on the lower support of palm oil [2] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation, pay attention to China-US economic and trade relations [2] - Soybean meal: Trading based on capital and technical aspects, low-level oscillation [2] - Soybean: Oscillation [2] - Corn: Rebounded [2] - Sugar: Sugar production in central and southern Brazil increased year-on-year [2] - Cotton: Slight rebound [2] - Eggs: Weak oscillation [2] - Live pigs: Supply postponed, the central price continues to decline [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the weather in the producing areas [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamentals: Palm oil's daily closing price was 9,312 yuan/ton with a -0.11% change, and night closing price was 9,388 yuan/ton with a 0.82% change; soybean oil's daily closing price was 8,256 yuan/ton with a 0.05% change, and night closing price was 8,308 yuan/ton with a 0.63% change [4] - Macro and Industry News: From October 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield increased by 5.76% month-on-month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.21% month-on-month, and production increased by 6.86% month-on-month [5] - Trend Intensity: Palm oil trend intensity is 1; soybean oil trend intensity is 1 [9] 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamentals: DCE soybean 2601's daily closing price was 4018 yuan/ton with a +30 (+0.75%) change, and night closing price was 4029 yuan/ton with a +9 (+0.22%) change; DCE soybean meal 2601's daily closing price was 2907 yuan/ton with a -7 (-0.24%) change, and night closing price was 2891 yuan/ton with a -24 (-0.82%) change [10] - Macro and Industry News: On October 16, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to strong domestic demand, offsetting concerns about China-US trade tensions. China has not completed most of its soybean procurement for December and January shipments due to high Brazilian soybean premiums [10][12] - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0; soybean trend intensity is 0 [12] 3.3 Corn - Fundamentals: The closing price of C2511 was 2,111 yuan/ton with a 0.67% change, and night closing price was 2,114 yuan/ton with a 0.14% change; the closing price of C2601 was 2,136 yuan/ton with a 0.80% change, and night closing price was 2,130 yuan/ton with a -0.28% change [14] - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn bulk shipping port prices increased, container port prices for new grain slightly increased; Guangdong Shekou bulk shipping prices were flat, container prices decreased. Northeast deep - processing corn prices were under pressure, and North China corn prices mostly declined [15] - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16] 3.4 Sugar - Fundamentals: The raw sugar price was 15.85 cents/pound with a 0.18 change; the mainstream spot price was 5770 yuan/ton with a -10 change; the futures main price was 5408 yuan/ton with a 5 change [17] - Macro and Industry News: Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 11% year-on-year. Brazil's exports decreased, raising concerns about global consumption. Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast [17] - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is -1 [20] 3.5 Cotton - Fundamentals: The closing price of CF2601 was 13,320 yuan/ton with a 0.38% change, and night closing price was 13340 yuan/ton with a 0.15% change; the closing price of CY2601 was 19,405 yuan/ton with a 0.41% change, and night closing price was 19420 yuan/ton [22] - Macro and Industry News: Domestic cotton spot trading was slightly weaker, and the cotton yarn market was weak. ICE cotton futures fluctuated, closing slightly lower [23] - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [26] 3.6 Eggs - Fundamentals: The closing price of egg 2511 was 2,818 yuan/500 kilograms with a -1.05 change, and the closing price of egg 2601 was 3,175 yuan/500 kilograms with a -1.06 change [28] - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is -1 [28] 3.7 Live Pigs - Fundamentals: Henan's live pig spot price was 11280 yuan/ton with a 150 change; Sichuan's was 10800 yuan/ton with a 150 change; Guangdong's was 11460 yuan/ton with a 100 change [30] - Market Information: 90 lots of warehouse receipts were registered in Shennong's Yunnan and Guangxi warehouses, and 21 lots in Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan [31] - Trend Intensity: Live pig trend intensity is -2 [32] 3.8 Peanuts - Fundamentals: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 8,300 yuan/ton; Henan Baisha general peanuts was 8,100 yuan/ton; Xingcheng Xiaoriben peanuts was 8,060 yuan/ton; Sudan refined peanuts was 8,700 yuan/ton [34] - Spot Market Focus: In the Henan Baisha area, there was little inventory trading. In Jilin, Liaoning, and other areas, due to weather and other factors, the supply volume was small, and the price was basically stable [35] - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [38]