Shanghai Lonyer(SH:603003) Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-10-17 05:27Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, but short - term fluctuations will increase. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term fast - in - and - out operations. Dips are considered opportunities for medium - to long - term long - position building. Hold existing long positions with caution. The resistance level for London gold is 4500, and the support level is around 4300. For silver, the resistance is 55, and the support is 50 [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Thursday, precious metal prices continued to rise strongly. The US dollar index, US Treasury yields declined, the US stock market, Bitcoin, and crude oil fell. The silver lease rate rose again, indicating increased risks in the US financial market. The loan fraud and bad debt problems of two US banks triggered a credit crisis and a sell - off, with the US regional bank index in the stock market plummeting nearly 7% during the session. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4344.3 per ounce, up 3.4%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $53.43 per ounce, up 3.99%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 966.42 yuan per gram, up 1.84%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 12017 yuan per kilogram, up 2.93% [2] 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of an interest rate cut within the year has significantly increased. Although it is still highly likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points rather than 50 basis points in October. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 3.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 96.3%. By December, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 85%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 14.6%. By January, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 38.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 52.8%. The SPDR Gold ETF's holdings increased by 12.02 tons to 1034.62 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF's holdings remained at 15422.61 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 48.1 tons to 982.3 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 64.3 tons to 1108.1 tons as of the week ending October 10 [3] 3. This Week's Focus - Due to the US government shutdown, many key data updates have been suspended. The release of the US September CPI, originally scheduled for October 15, may be postponed to October 24. There will be many speeches by Fed officials this week, which will provide more guidance for the FOMC meeting on October 31. On Saturday at 00:15, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will give a speech [3] 4. Precious Metal Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 966.42 yuan per gram, up 0.63%. SGX gold TD is at 967.29 yuan per gram, up 0.92%. CME gold main contract is at $4344.3 per ounce, up 2.83%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 12017 yuan per kilogram, up 0.43%. SGX silver TD is at 11981 yuan per kilogram, up 0.17%. CME silver main contract is at $53.43 per ounce, up 1.72%. The SHFE - TD gold spread is - 0.87 yuan per gram, down 147.28%. The SHFE - TD silver spread is 36 yuan per kilogram, up 66.67%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 81.3083, up 1.08% [5][6] 5. Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory is 80961 kilograms, up 7.81%. CME gold inventory is 1217.6426 tons, down 0.35%. SHFE gold position is 225159 lots, down 2.4%. SPDR gold position is 1034.62 tons, up 1.18%. SHFE silver inventory is 982.255 tons, down 4.68%. CME silver inventory is 15930.0729 tons, down 0.11%. SGX silver inventory is 1108.065 tons, down 5.49%. SHFE silver position is 468355 lots, down 1.98%. SLV silver position is 15422.606288 tons, unchanged [11] 6. Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index is at 98.3445, down 0.35%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.1279, down 0.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 45952.24 points, down 0.65%. WTI crude oil spot is at $57.46 per barrel, down 1.39%. LmeS copper 03 is at $10620 per ton, up 0.42%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is 3.99%, down 1.48%. The 10 - year US real interest rate is 1.71%, down 2.84%. The 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread is 0.58%, up 5.45% [17]