Changjiang Securities·2025-10-17 05:49Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company's thermal power operations continue to improve, with expectations for strong quarterly performance driven by significant cost reductions in coal [2][6] - Despite a decrease in electricity generation and prices, the substantial drop in fuel costs is expected to alleviate pressure on revenue, leading to an overall positive performance outlook for the third quarter [2][6] Summary by Sections Electricity Generation and Pricing - In the third quarter, the company's coal-fired power generation decreased by 7.16% year-on-year, while gas-fired generation saw a slight decline of 0.30% [2][6] - The average on-grid electricity price for the first three quarters of 2025 was 478.71 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 3.54% year-on-year, with the third quarter price at 0.468 yuan per kilowatt-hour, a decrease of 0.024 yuan per kilowatt-hour [2][6] Cost Analysis - The average coal price at Qinhuangdao for Q5500 grade coal was 672.46 yuan per ton, down 175.63 yuan per ton year-on-year, indicating a significant cost reduction that is expected to support improved performance in thermal power operations [2][6] Renewable Energy Operations - The company added 220.53 MW of wind power and 462.68 MW of solar power capacity in the first three quarters of 2025, with total installed capacities reaching 2031.43 MW for wind and 2446.28 MW for solar by the end of September 2025 [2][6] - Despite the growth in renewable energy capacity, the company faces challenges due to weak resource conditions affecting wind generation and increased costs from depreciation and other expenses [2][6] Financial Projections - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 0.84 yuan, 0.91 yuan, and 0.98 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.85, 8.13, and 7.53 [2][6]