宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term and show a sideways trend in the medium - term. For soybean meal, factors such as Sino - US trade relations, high near - month inventory and far - month gap expectations in the domestic market are influencing its price. For palm oil, international oil price pressure, policy uncertainties, and demand substitution are the main factors [5][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - Day - to - day View: Fluctuate weakly - Medium - term View: Sideways - Reference View: Fluctuate weakly - Core Logic: Sino - US trade relations continue to disrupt the market. The combination of tariff increases and negotiation uncertainties, along with the contradiction of high near - month inventory and far - month gap expectations in the domestic market, leads to a divergence in soybean futures prices and a weakening of capital support. As a result, soybean meal futures prices fluctuate weakly in the short - term [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - Day - to - day View: Fluctuate weakly - Medium - term View: Sideways - Reference View: Fluctuate weakly - Core Logic: The spill - over effect of the pressure on international oil prices on the oil market persists. Additionally, policy uncertainties in various countries increase, demand substitution in the oil market emerges, and market instability rises. Affected by macro - sentiment, market funds are cautious, and bulls leave the market. Before market sentiment recovers, palm oil futures prices will fluctuate weakly [7]. 3.3 Other Factors Affecting Related Varieties - Soybean Meal 2601: Influenced by Sino - US relations, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure [6]. - Soybean Oil 2601: Affected by Sino - US relations, US bio - fuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. - Palm 2601: Impacted by its bio - diesel attribute, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].