新能源及有色金属日报：短期基本面矛盾有限，铅价继续震荡-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy:暂缓 (The original text uses Chinese, and there is no direct English equivalent provided, so it's presented as in the original) [4] Core View - Currently, the processing fee for lead concentrates remains low despite the rising by - product prices, and there are no significant contradictions in the fundamentals. Downstream enterprises are expected to fully recover from the holiday next week, mostly adopting a production - based - on - sales model. It is predicted that the lead price will fluctuate in the range of approximately 16,920 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 16, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 44.09 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 50 yuan/ton to 16950 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium/discount changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 10.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot changed by 50 yuan/ton to 17000 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot changed by 25 yuan/ton to 17000 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium/discount changed by 25 yuan/ton to 17025 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap spread changed by 0 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10000 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10125 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells changed by 0 yuan/ton to 10375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On October 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17110 yuan/ton and closed at 17100 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 32242 lots, a change of - 9015 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position throughout the trading day was 41899 lots, a change of - 2133 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17150 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17090 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17090 yuan/ton and closed at 17045 yuan/ton, a 0.41% decrease from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price rose by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Lead smelting enterprises in Henan had low inventories, and holders quoted at a discount of 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract for pre - sale, with spot goods in a queuing - for - pick - up state. Smelters in Hunan quoted at a premium of 0 - 25 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for sale, and some manufacturers suspended quoting after selling out their inventories. Smelters in Jiangxi and Anhui quoted at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for pre - sale. Downstream battery enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and there were large regional differences in lead market supply, with some high - price spot goods in supply - tight areas having transactions [2] Inventory - On October 16, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 3.8 million tons, a change of 0.17 million tons compared with the same period last week. As of October 16, the LME lead inventory was 252000 tons, a change of - 2775 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]