新能源及有色金属日报：政策预期及消息扰动影响，多晶硅盘面继续反弹-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The overall fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon are average, with the industrial silicon market mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - end news, and the polysilicon market affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality [3][7]. - Industrial silicon is undervalued currently, and if there are relevant policies, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, relevant policies are expected to be introduced this year, and it is suitable to buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 16, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8555 yuan/ton and closed at 8605 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 131,649 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,291 lots, a decrease of 66 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon declined slightly. The price of East China oxygen - fed 553 silicon was 9300 - 9400 (- 50) yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 (0) yuan/ton. The price in regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and Xinjiang also decreased [1]. - As of October 16, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 562,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from last week. Among them, the social general warehouse inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 442,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from last week [1]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11,100 - 11,500 (0) yuan/ton. The market average price increased by 250 yuan/ton week - on - week. The DMC quotes of Shandong monomer enterprises and other domestic monomer enterprises also increased [2]. Strategy - The spot price is generally stable with minor fluctuations, and the inventory increased significantly on a weekly basis. The overall fundamentals are average. The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - end news. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and it is advisable to buy on dips for contracts during the dry season. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 16, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 50,690 yuan/ton and closing at 52,575 yuan/ton, a 3.48% change from the previous trading day. The position was 78,885 lots (80,114 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 266,129 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.50 - 55.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 25.30 (a 5.33% change), and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.31GW (a 3.16% change). The weekly polysilicon output was 31,000.00 tons (0.00% change), and the silicon wafer output was 14.35GW (an 11.85% change) [4][5]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. The polysilicon price was generally stable with minor fluctuations. The market trading was light during the National Day, and there were few new transactions. The polysilicon output in October exceeded expectations and is expected to increase by 3,000 - 5,000 tons month - on - month [5][6]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with large overall inventory pressure, less - than - expected production cuts, and difficult price transmission downstream. The short - term trading situation has weakened. - The cancellation of warehouse receipts in November will put some pressure on the market. The market is currently affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations. - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 48,000 - 54,000 yuan/ton. - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [7].