液化石油气日报：盘面连续反弹，市场阻力仍存-20251017

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The PG futures market has rebounded recently, driven by factors such as a technical bounce after an oversold situation and concerns about potential supply disruptions from the US due to tariff threats. However, considering the uncertainties in macro and policy aspects during the China - US negotiation window and the expected continuation of the global oversupply situation in LPG, there are still resistances in the market [1] Market Analysis Summary - On October 16, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4180 - 4300 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3910 - 4310 yuan/ton; North China market, 4250 - 4450 yuan/ton; East China market, 4200 - 4310 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4620 - 4810 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4490 - 4530 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of November 2025, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 539 dollars/ton and 544 dollars/ton respectively, both up 2 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4211 yuan/ton and 4250 yuan/ton in RMB, up 14 yuan/ton each. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 533 dollars/ton and 538 dollars/ton respectively, also up 2 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4164 yuan/ton and 4203 yuan/ton in RMB, up 14 yuan/ton each [1] - The recent rebound of the PG futures is due to an oversold bounce. After Saudi Arabia cut the October CP price more than expected, the overseas market dropped during the National Day holiday, and the domestic futures followed suit. The spot market was relatively stable, leading to a stronger basis. After the price decline, the cost reduction of raw materials is conducive to the marginal repair of downstream chemical profits and demand. The narrowing price difference between LPG and naphtha will stimulate the switch of raw materials from naphtha to LPG. The threat of US tariffs has also strengthened the rebound sentiment. But due to the uncertainties in macro and policy and the expected continuation of the global oversupply of LPG, the market resistance remains [1]