丙烯日报：需求支撑不足，丙烯上行乏力-20251017

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for propylene lacks support, and its upward movement is weak. Although the propylene price has stopped falling after reaching a low level, the supply - demand relationship remains weak, and the cost - side guidance is not strong, so the price may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions on the propane supply on the cost side [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 6106 yuan/ton (+27), the spot price in East China is 6190 yuan/ton (-25), and in North China is 6215 yuan/ton (-45). The basis in East China is 84 yuan/ton (-52), and in North China is 109 yuan/ton (-72). The operating rate is 74% (-1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 226 US dollars/ton (+4), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 132 US dollars/ton (-11), the import profit is - 400 yuan/ton (-6), and the in - plant inventory is 43390 tons (-1520) [1] - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder is 39% (-1.03%), and the production profit is - 85 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 68% (-4%), and the production profit is - 51 yuan/ton (-33); the operating rate of n - butanol is 90% (+2%), and the production profit is 85 yuan/ton (+28); the operating rate of octanol is 92% (-4%), and the production profit is 103 yuan/ton (+32); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 75% (-8%), and the production profit is 1205 yuan/ton (+18); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 79% (+0%), and the production profit is - 673 yuan/ton (+47); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 78% (+0%), and the production profit is - 526 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: The 600,000 - ton PDH unit of Bohai Petrochemical and the 650,000 - ton cracking unit of Yulong Petrochemical have stopped, while the 450,000 - ton PDH unit of Tianhong has restarted, and the PDH unit of Haiwei has the expectation of restarting. Coupled with the resumption of production of some major manufacturers in Shandong before the festival, the restart of PDH continues to suppress the propylene supply side [2] - Demand side: When the propylene price drops to a phased low, downstream buyers start to purchase at low prices, but the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the demand lacks continuous support. The overall downstream operating rate has declined. For propylene oxide, Lihuayi and Jinling have stopped for maintenance, and the PO unit of Hangjin Technology has a shutdown plan, resulting in a decline in the PO operating rate. The demand on the PP side is also difficult to improve, and the operating rate of PP powder has declined slightly. The operating rate of acrylic acid has declined significantly [2] - Cost side: International oil prices continue to decline under pressure due to weak demand and tariff disturbances. The price of external propane has rebounded slightly but is still weak. The cost side of propylene continues to drag down the propylene market [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Sell high and buy back for the PL01 - 02 spread - Inter - variety: None [3] 3.4 Catalog - related Charts - Propylene basis structure: Includes charts of the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11] - Propylene production profit and operating rate: Includes charts of the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][17][23] - Propylene import and export profit: Includes charts of the price differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [30][32] - Propylene downstream profit and operating rate: Includes charts of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][43] - Propylene inventory: Includes charts of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [62]